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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (58377)	1/3/2002 5:17:21 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I don't need to post because you say it all. A few things. I looked at the Merrill Lynch semiconductor analysis (30 companies) and their forecast is for CY03 to have lower cumulative revenues for the group than CY00. This is a caution flag for the semi-equip recovery. I stand by my November statement that we have seen the lows last year and that a new bull market has started. The near term prospects for technology stocks and their valuations is another caution flag. If my November prediction of a rally through FEB/MAR is met, I believe the stage will be set for a significant correction with die-hards calling this rally another bear trap. I still look to take profits (sell, sell covered calls) at my previously posted target prices and to use the correction to get in about 20% lower. I don't think it is prudent to try to maximize profit during this run up and the subsequent correction because we are in a bull market. I think that the best business case I have seen for AMAT is still $20B revenues and $5.50 EPS. Best case timing is 2005, but 2006-2008 is more likely. This should lead to $110-165 in 2004, best case timing, or, more likely in 2005-2007.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (58377)	1/3/2002 9:54:26 PM
From: kdavy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, thanks for your thoughtful reply. At heart, I am a trader. My trading time varies from few hours (rarely) to days to weeks. Longest I ever held a stock is approximately two months. ( In my children's accounts I have held securities for over two years). Recently, I divided my assests in two separate accounts ( I had done this in April also but transfered the securities and cash in October to cover margin). In my long term account, I have 60% of my assets of which amat is about 60%. I know that is a lot and is risky. But I am ready to take profit or write covered calls with each 20% jump in value. This account has no margin (not allowed). If the charts break down eg P&F supportline. I will bail out. (no Enrons for me unless some news overnight plunges amat or the market) If need be I am willing to hold the securities for a very long time, whatever that means. My short term account: I started with 40% assets. I trade amat, nvls, mxim, lltc, altr, xlnx, sunw, orcl, emc and itwo actively. I may be all cash or margined, depending on the stock and the day. I generally keep stocks from few days to few weeks. I have held txn calls for two weeks. It is getting to the upper limit of my time range. I am willing to keep these for two more weeks (may be). Right now the market looks positive for the near future. I will be looking to take profit soon. I will use 10-20% drops for trading entries. Thanks again. Kdavy