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Non-Tech : QQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (713)	1/3/2002 8:42:38 PM
From: Savant	Respond to of 840

Dan, if I recall what I read an hour ago, over dinner and wine, the S&P is 20% overvalued based on trailing earnings, and fully valued based on projected future earnings. So, in essence, it is already fully valued now IF the companies fulfill their projected potential this year. (not my projections). Implicit would be that they are overvalued based on future, if they do NOT perform, and undervalued, if they out perform. In response to " Who wants to wait for the earnings to be realized and miss the opportunity to buy at what appears to be a discount to future fair value." ====== PS, what intrigues me, is that with a 48, there is still a contraction occuring, albeit decelerating, not an expansion. My glass is less than half full, and is STILL emptying, not filling. I wish to see some sustained growth, before getting too enthusiastic. S.

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (713)	1/3/2002 9:48:31 PM
From: lifeisgood	Respond to of 840

Dan, I'm pretty sure we'll be close to a bottom in the market when people aren't falling over themselves trying to invest in Tech companies that have no earnings. Instead, people will run from the market, predicting the worst for the future, and finding no reason to put more capital at risk. We saw this very briefly after Sept. 11 but, IMO, we haven't seen anything yet. When people continue to massage the data, make all types of assumptions about future this and that (e.g., earnings, improved economy, growth rates, etc.) and invest their money in bubble stocks on every dip.... we're not there yet. I'm surprised that 58 of the NASDAQ 100 have made profits during the past 12 months (although I'll take the other poster's word at it). What is even more surprising is that the poster thinks that is a good thing. I suppose it's a matter of perspective but when 42% of these companies have lost money during the past 12 months, I don't see any reason to celebrate especially in light of the fact that these are the "top" 100 nasdaq companies. best... LIG