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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (45778)	1/4/2002 9:17:32 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

missing a very big phenomenon developing now among investments a repeat of 1992-93 is happening right now huge downdraft with deflation huge updraft with money supply inflation the titanic struggle ALWAYS results in temporary hard asset inflation at least since the disastrous Fed and Govt policies in 1930 in 1993 hard asset inflation was seen in gold, oil, metals, etc commodity reflation is the first step in a recovery from such a very big slaughter among assets intellectual property bows to hard assets right under your noses almost nobody is paying attention to history "let's get back into techs again" is the false battle cry they will rise, then get creamed AGAIN commodity-based investments will rise, then stall, but not get creamed has anyone learned anything in the last several years? I wonder about myself sometimes I overlooked the Inverted Yield Curve screaming in June-Oct 2000 that clearly forecasted a recession in 12 months history rang true there now the repeat I see is the monumental effort last seen in 1992-93 we were stuck in the Post-GulfWar recession gold and other hard assets made a huge rally some gold stocks tripled the Federal Govt now has two choices: 1. succumb to deflation which brings recession, depression 2. reflate the economy which brings hard asset inflation this is gonna be a couple years to see economy recover stage#1 will see commodity price inflation that is what the bond market has been yelling at you guys as its interest rate rose 80 bpt since November / Jim