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To: ild who wrote (141590)	1/3/2002 11:20:25 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

caetainly, his cuts have been positive for gold -- pull up a chart -- maybe early yet, but it looks to be well into having put in a base to me. Ultimately, it will be a negative for the dollar -- though I grant you we haven't seen that yet. But moreover, it has not and cannot do what economists have been telling us it will do -- reinvigorate capital spending. That's key. Look at that chart that Les posted and think about 2nd derivative -- that's the fastest decline in earnings since you and I have been investing -- decreasing debt service costs has not stopped that and it won't. Look what they have had to do to keep FF at 1.75 ... can you imagine the repos required to push rates to 1.00. No way he could do that, bonds would tank. Why are firms like HD and BBY willing to finance things at 0% interest for 1 - 1 1/2 years? To make a sale they wouldn't otherwise make? ... sure. Could they do the same thing by cutting prices? ... probably not. What's that mean for the future demand and price? What's that mean for earnings? Think not just direction, but acceleration. What's happening now is the whole darn bubble in a microcosm on the heels of a very large bubble in which rates were held too low ... when ur in it, it looks like it works forever until its gone. Anyone can look at the Naz or the Internet stock frenzy and say Yup, it was a bubble -- hate to say it, but there's an element of truth to what AG says for the populace at large (can only recognize those darn things afterward). No credit bubble ever existed as far as the public is concerned and won't have existed until we are past the implosion.