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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35763)	1/4/2002 4:14:56 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69617

Tech Stock Analysis Printable Version \| Archive -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Updated: 04-Jan-02 General Commentary The January effect is in full force, as indices enjoyed another day of broad based gains... Techs helped to pace the advance yet again, with storage, hardware, chip and networking/telecom equipment stocks leading the charge... Among the winners were EMC (EMC 16.59 +1.79), Dell (DELL 29.03 +1.53), Cisco (CSCO 20.76 +1.53), Intel (INTC 35.52 +2.52), PMC-Sierra (PMCS 25 +2.14), Applied Materials (AMAT 45.49 +3.82), Newport Corp. (NEWP 23.35 +3.10), Brocade (BRCD 39.01 +3.54), QLogic (QLGC 52.27 +4.29), Redback Networks (RBAK 5.13 +0.42), Micron (MU 36.51 +3.27), Advanced Micro (AMD 19.37 +2.98), Lam Research (LRCX 26.08 +1.89), KLA-Tencor (KLAC 55.50 +3.20), Nortel Networks (8.28 +0.53), Oracle (ORCL 15.29 +1.31), Microsoft (MSFT 69.23 +21.9), and Gateway (GTW 9.19 +0.79)... Strength in tech propelled Nasdaq up 65 points, or 3.3%, to 2044 - its first close above the psychologically significant 2000 barrier since December 18th... Index now a scant 22 points away from establishing a new recovery high. Considering that many of the above named companies are expected to struggle for the next quarter or more, it's clear that techs are running well ahead of their fundamentals as investors look beyond next couple of quarters to midyear recovery... Consequently, any negative shocks over next couple of days either from economic data such as Friday's jobs report or from high profile earnings warnings should take some air out of the advance. Nevertheless, it's clear that market psychology is much improved, and as such dips will be viewed as buying opportunities... Institutional investors will continue to favor the large-cap, industry leaders during early stages of advance. Robert Walberg Industry Briefs Computer Systems & Peripherals \| Networking \| Internet \| Semiconductor \| Semi Equipment \| Software \| Telecom Equip \| Telecom Services Computer Systems & Peripherals Industry Members Apple Computer (AAPL) 23.58 +0.28: Stock could "hit the skids" after Monday's MacWorld trade show, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column. Even much-anticipated new product releases may not provide a boost to the stock, continuing the historical pattern of a run-up before the show and a sell-off following the news. Conigliaro on Econ Recovery : Goldman Sachs's Laura Conigliaro expects a very gradual recovery, and sees a slow beginning to 2002 in the seasonal March qtr; believes that the 12-15 month risk/reward for EMC, IBM, SUNW is favorable in a recovering economy. Datakey, Inc. (DKEY) 4.80 +1.15: Announces a $1 mln order from a U.S. government agency for Datakey smart cards, card readers and CIP client software. Agency employees, contractors and other approved personnel will use Datakey smart card technology for secure facility and network access. EMC Corp (EMC) 16.59 +1.79: Salomon Smith Barney upgrades to BUY from Outperform, leaves price target of $20 unchanged. Identix Inc. (IDNX) 13.80 -0.59: Announces that five new airports have selected its Live Scan fingerprint biometric technology for rapid processing of employee background checks. These five airports are in addition to the six new airports Identix announced last week. Reports that San Francisco Intl Airport ordered another system to assist in processing employees. Mercury Computer (MRCY) 40.10 +0.53: After close, company warns of Q2 earnings in the $0.13-$0.17 range (consensus $0.26); puts rev at $36-$37 mln (consensus $43.3 mln). "The domestic defense business has been negatively impacted by a protracted approval of the FY02 Defense Appropriations bill within Congress and the debate over additional funding for the war on terrorism." Co expects increased demand for its type of computer systems as the Dept of Defense implements its modernization strategy. Overland Data (OVRL) 11.17 +2.90: Supplier of storage solutions expects to exceed analysts' Q2 earnings and rev expectations of $0.13 a share and $42 mln. Strength being driven by demand for co's new Neo series of tape automation products. Networking Industry Members CSFB On Networking : For the DecQ, CSFB expects RBAK to exceed estimates, FDRY to possibly miss by a little, and EXTR/ETS to post in-line results. From an investment standpoint, firm would focus on the names that are best-positioned or that could potentially offer upside to earnings estimates. CSCO and RSTN are CSFB's two favorite stocks at this juncture, with JNPR potentially attractive at lower prices. McDATA (MCDT) 31.42 +3.71: CSFB's checks suggest that co should post a strong qtr, meeting or beating firm's Q4 estimates of ($0.01) and $87.8 mln (First Call consensus for the qtr is $0.00). With manufacturing issues mostly in the past and continued customer diversification on the way, firm sees room for steady improvement in gross margins.