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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert G. Harrell who wrote (35781)	1/4/2002 3:24:50 PM
From: dlu	Respond to of 67554

Bob... Putting my 2 cents in here, but I think several stocks now have this formation due to the events of Sept. 11. We are all attempting to analyze/trade in an event-driven, emotional market. More than anything else, I'd be looking at resistance areas when trading THQI. Harry? dlu

To: Robert G. Harrell who wrote (35781)	1/4/2002 7:37:43 PM
From: Bill Cotter	Respond to of 67554

Hi Bob; For T/A take a look at the 'Ask DrBob' thread. Every day he posts in the header of the thread, his analysis of lots of technical indicators for the NYSE and NASDAQ. Lately he has been calling it right. In the AM post today (pre-market) he goes out on a limb for next week. Let's see if he is going to be right. "While some profit-taking can occur on Friday, when the ramifications of this week's rally is pondered over the weekend, and those watching realize that stocks are not going to accommodate them with a big correction, they will leave the sidelines to buy next week. January should be a good month indeed, as the tape is bullish." He also offers T/A courses and mentions that the January courses will be starting in about a weeks time also in the header of the thread. I have never taken any of his courses but he seems legitimate to me. Subject 36624

To: Robert G. Harrell who wrote (35781)	1/5/2002 3:17:26 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 67554

Hi Robert, >>My question to you or anyone who really knows T/A is does >>a reverse head and shoulders have a positive implication >>if it is on top of a long up trend? That is an interesting question, I don't think I have ever seen a statistical study on the issue. I would say this though, pattern typical fall into two categories: 1) Consolidation of Continuation Patterns 2) Reversal Patterns As a reverse head and shoulders is a reversal pattern, I would say that a reverse head and shoulder within the context of a up trend would have little significance as the trend is already up. Definition of a head and shoulder: iqchart.com Terms of reference on patterns: recognia.com Keep in mind that most people anticipate the completion of the right shoulder though and as a result get whipsawed out. The other issue is that most people don't allow enough of a time period to elapse for the head and shoulder to form before labelling it a head and shoulder. Remember that the pattern is a reflection of the thinking of the market participants, a change in psyschology take time to form. It is not something that normally happens over a few days. Patterns are not really my area of expertise. I am not sure who is left on SI who is a good pattern reader. Keep in mind there is still a great deal of art to reading a pattern as one person's head and shoulder is another person's ascending triangle.

To: Robert G. Harrell who wrote (35781)	1/5/2002 11:37:33 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67554

Harry, Its a messy chart but much simpler in weekly bar form. trendvue.com Its been in a big consolidation zone since July 2000, having tested the range on the low and then the high end. Bottom line, its still stuck in the range. Despite the close last week, the weekly bar is still a "down" bar and on the weekly, a downswing is still in place. Next week very well may change all of that, and I suggest that it must move up here otherwise the downswing will turn into more than a simple retracement (on the weekly). On the daily, its currently in an upswing but running into resistance at multiple points: trendvue.com - the top of the big dark candle - a prior swing - 20 + 50 EMAs (no hard and fast rule, but many people watch and act on MA's, whether it makes sense or not) My question to you or anyone who really knows T/A is does a reverse head and shoulders have a positive implication if it is on top of a long up trend? I don't 'see' a H&S here, and IMO those patterns are too big to really act upon. They can be useful to measure potential range of movement in classic E&M style, but I don't use them except to note when they exist and perhaps develop a plan to take advantge of them. The H&S is a big pattern which is actually composed of other smaller, easier to deal with patterns. It really is just a series of consolidations at different levels. Identifying when a consolidation is happening (and for me, staying out of the way until its done) vs a trend is the important part. Mike