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Politics : Sharks in the Septic Tank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Solon who wrote (41969)	1/4/2002 1:38:55 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82486

Yes Chuck's presentation was certainly one sided but that doesn't mean it doesn't make some valid points. I think even without the bombs or an invasion there is a good chance that Japan would have given up at some point, but its possible that it would be only after more death then the atom bombs caused. Its impossible to really prove one way or the other because you are dealing with multiple what ifs. We probably could have ended the war sooner with fewer deaths on all sides by using the full carrot and stick: 1) offer retention of the Emperor for a quick surrender; and 2) threaten Russian invasion and 3) atomic destruction as the alternative. None of these key incentives to surrender were used prior to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. The Japanese where preparing to resist an invasion. It could have been by the USSR or by American forces, but the fact that we had fought a long war with them and where not in position to invade is itself enough of a threat. As for 3, we did tell them that we had a terrible new weapon but predicably the threat didn't accomplish much until it was actually demonstrated. As for 1 - Its possible that it could have ended the war without too much delay but it is not certain. If you believe that it would have ended the war then it would seem your biggest problem is with the unconditional surrender policy. Even without that policy it is not totally clear that the war would have ended before or soon after when it actually ended, but without such changes and without the bomb Japan would have probably had to be subjected to continued bombing and blockade, and perhaps an invasion to force it to surrender. Tim