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Strategies & Market Trends : Dow Dogs, Foolish Four and other market-beating strategies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (31)	1/7/2002 5:59:18 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 82

Here's Ken Lee's picks for 2002: boards.fool.com Here's some of the work that goes on on the same board (a 1999 post): boards.fool.com Found the name of the guy who came up with the four-stock approach: Charlie Perry: members.iquest.net A couple of items of note: first, Ken is now focused much more on a stock's 50 week EMA than on its earnings growth. Ideally, he wants the 20 WEMA above the 50 WEMA, and the stock trading above both. If it's close, he'll use the daily 20/50 EMAs for confirmation. And second - I was chatting with Ken the other day and he confirmed something I had noticed: stocks making the buy list two years straight tend to outperform regardless of how oversold they are (the notion that the amount of time a stock is oversold is also important). Stocks repeating in 2001 returned almost 40%, and only one (CAG) was in the red. The others were SPLS, NWL, JCI, HRB, SWK and WB. There are only two repeat stocks on the list this year - CSC and TXT. I'm considering adding them (buy targets would be $49 and $41.50, respectively), for a portfolio of AEP, D, MRK, PFE, WM, CSC and TXT. I don't like CSC because I'm not sure its accounting issues were ever satisfactorily resolved (same with TYC, which is currently the most oversold stock after falling 8% last week), but the market seems to like it. Both stocks were up 3%-6% last week. Finally, I tend to prefer the TrouncingTheDow.com picks (AEP, D, etc.) to Ken's own; they seem to be more value-oriented and more in line with my own approach. I'm intrigued by Ken's UIS pick, and may look more closely at USB too. Will watch both lists this year to see how they do. (Orignally posted on SAII Jan. 6)

To: Paul Shread who wrote (31)	2/26/2002 8:51:33 PM
From: Herm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82

Hello Paul and Others, As a mediator of an SI forum myself, I realize how much work you have put into your forum. Nice topic and niche in the investment world Paul. Kudos to you and your readers out there. Here is a link to my forum. Subject 12574 What caught my eyes was your interest in LEAPs which is another area of interest to me along with writing covered calls. I love to do LEAPs spreads and DOW stocks are prime companies which are much more conservative for doing so. In fact, I milk the up and down movements of DOW stocks. In other words, I really don't care which way the DOW stocks move. You can make money buying the LEAPs calls or puts or doing spreads in both directions. Here is my current run down of the DOW stocks as far as a new buy signal, new short signal, and existing long or short signal. I update the movement twice per week. New DOW Buy Signal C stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] HD stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] IBM stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] New DOW Short Signal DD stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] Existing DOW Long Signal AA stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] GE stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] GM stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] HON stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] JNJ stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] MMM stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] PG stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] SBC stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] T stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] XOM stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] Existing DOW Short Signal IP stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] MRK stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] WMT stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Lg] I provided the technical indicators that I use exclusively to ascertain the current trend for each stock. I use the SAR, RSI, OBV, and Bollinger Bands. Together, they confirm the major pivot points quite accurately. It is possible to average a conservative 60% to 75% (un-margined) annually if you play both the upward (long) and downward (short) moves of the DOW just trading them in and out and shorting. Using LEAPs would greatly increase the annual ROI% since you only invest a fraction of the DOW share prices. Of course, you have to be a good chart reader in order to use the additional leverage of the LEAPs. I would not use anything with less than one-year in time value. Herm