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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kent Rattey who wrote (22049)	1/4/2002 6:05:52 PM
From: OWN STOCK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Kent: A few thoughts: 1) No doubt tunable sources can be popular in Metro and LH networks. Agility has one that works. If they can get the cost down, it will be used in volume. In the last couple of years, the networks have done a good job of minimizing the logistics issues associated with fixed wavelength sources, and the prices have dropped about as low as they are going to go...until the sales volumes justify the next step: automation...which is about a million units per year. The problem now is the tunable sources still do not have a lot of reliability data nor can they compete on price...even with the benefits of reducing inventory. Miles to go before.... 2) As to time division multiplexed (TDM), frequency division multiplexed (FDM), DWDM, etc...the verdict is in for LH, ULH (and it is DWDM), but (IMO) the jury is out for Metro. I personally do not see anything over 10 Gbits being useful for Metro. 1.2 to 2.5 Gbits is very inexpensive, and can be done with CMOS. The overall issue is whether it is cheaper to put in another fiber, or to mux and switch and de-mux. Switches are getting to be big expensive headaches, especially for multiplexed data...what with different protocols, data rates, sources, destinations, etc. IMO, CO to CO it looks like FDM at low data rates will be a winner, and that to me is the Metro-space for now. The beauty is the data is carried to the other CO at the same rate is was at the original CO...sort of line to line if you like. That means no additional switch is needed on either end, just a simple CMOS RF receiver chip. The winner will always be something that keeps things very simple and very low cost but does the job. -Own