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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (141763)	1/4/2002 9:30:35 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

what do you get for 'idle' funds with your broker -- I wish I could get the FF rate on that <ng>

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (141763)	1/4/2002 11:25:02 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

those C & I are really telling us something as is money velocity: but i'm not sure still what it means on LTrates, at least not sure enough to bet the farm... thanks for the post!

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (141763)	1/6/2002 11:26:24 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 436258

Patron: Recall my note of a while ago where I noted that the banks were squeezing their clients? (g) As far as the consumer is concerned, once thr re-financing game slows, it should be all over but for the crying. And with the long end of the debt market nudging up....... Best, Earlie

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (141763)	1/7/2002 10:02:14 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Patron, I think you're wrong about the direction of rates. EVERYBODY thinks the bond bull market is over. Barron's did a cover story declaring its demise several weeks ago. Martin Barnes (Bank Credit Analyst; very smart and thoughtful guy) has called its end. The vast consensus among hedgies, as reported by Byron Wien and Barton Biggs from their annual get together at Lyford Cay (which get together was actually held in NYC this year) has said the bond rally is over. 24 out of 24 economists in that Bloomberg story somebody linked to think that the Fed Funds rate will be 150 bps or higher (most at 250 bps or higher) by year end. Moron Kevin Hassett (co-author of Dow 36,000) thinks inflation is on the way and argues for stocks over bonds for that reason. Even Bill Gross has pretty much declared the end of the bond bull, as he is conditioning his clients to expect lower returns and also seems to be moving his portfolio to more spread product. The bond bull is not over. Rates are going lower. This will NOT, however, perpetuate the housing bubble, as asset prices will be deflating even as the bond bull market continues. So the re-fi boom has seen its peak despite lower rates ahead. IMHO only, of course. Cheers