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To: AllansAlias who wrote (26793)	1/5/2002 12:00:55 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

Nice post. Just spoke with another daddy at the park; Get a lot of my antedoctal information this way nowadays.....he is involved in high-end real estate projects for the last 15 years...although he said business is bad, he mentioned that many developers have not gone as hog wild as (going into last recessions), and that they learned some lessons (less inventory, less debt)....I've heard this from several in the industry, many who were around in '90 and survived.....we'll see about that, but I'll hold open the possibility that real estate is in better-even if still bad- shape then in the last downturn. Like you, however, corporate, personal, and government balance sheets are bad (in most cases) and getting worse, and I haven't yet seen a coherent argument that says they are getting better. Indeed, unlike past recession, all seem to be delaying recovery (and making the downturn/bottom worse and prolonged) by piling on more debt/looser terms at the time in the cycle in which debt usually gets pared. In this respect, Argentina (and Japan for that matter) has taught us nothing, apparently. RE: Liquidity pump. Something I would love to get my hands better around...certainly, this thread has tried thru monitoring of daily Fed injections, etc. But as fall '99-early '00 shows, the ridiculous can get even more so "with a little help from their friends". I have no desire to be bear meat in such a scenario, but as you have said often, great opportunity awaits here for the patient bear. (One wild, brainstorming thought: I wonder if you pump enough, can wave counts perhaps get skewed/screwed up? The equivilent of the deck being stacked against a skilled poker player ("how do I keep losing?"). Perhaps could explain EDs, and the length of this 4? Perhaps waves work best in "normal" market conditions-whatever they are) Likely, over the next couple weeks, I will short extremes (like yesterday morn) and cover fairly quick until we get some clear breakdown/down channel going. Apparently, last time 200/50 moving averages were so close together was Sept. 2000..hmmm.. Of course, gap down and follow-thru Monday could put in a nice reversal, but I am thinking late Jan/early Feb. now..

To: AllansAlias who wrote (26793)	1/5/2002 1:16:12 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 209892

"It's beginning to look a lot like Nikkei" I am intrigued by the seemingly widely accepted (and increasingly accepted) notion that all AG need do is pump just the right amount to offset deflationary forces and all will be well. While I cannot say with certainity that such cannot be the case, experience tells me that it is highly unlikely. Something on the order of: "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch, son". But one can easily imagine that 10 years from now,some sort of a foolish stalemate will be in effect, with failed businesses having been continually propped up with easy money.... I just dont know how to invest in such a market...

To: AllansAlias who wrote (26793)	1/5/2002 5:50:05 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Allan, so how are you going to play the next 2-4 weeks? I understand that you think the rally will "push some more" buy that there is not "much upside left" so therefore you think "buying at this level is a fool's bet." I assume that this means that you will not be doing any long position trades for the next 2-4 weeks. And I also understand that you will patiently wait for the next swing shorting opportunity. But until then do you plan on playing only intraday wiggles (long and short) or do you anticipate doing any multiday position trading in addition to intraday? Also, how much more do you think the rally will push on $COMPX for the next 2-4 weeks? My WAG is 100-150 points. As for me, I think I'll be buying individual tech on dips for multiday holds and shorting spikes only for intraday trades or an occasional overnight hold. For example I bought BRCM on 12/20 and sold Friday for 10 points and shorted IDPH intraday this week for a few.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (26793)	1/5/2002 10:00:08 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

nice post, but ... >>Consumers are determined to go beyond any reasonable limit in personal liabilities, so I expect spending to remain fairly strong. All of this will be in the face of a continuing slow rise in unemployment. On the corporate side, I expect a bounce in capital spending for tech only, as a small upgrade cycle is bound to kick-in soon. << Consumers have already went beyond reasonable -- witness -- no payments for 3 month deals -> no payments for 6 months -> no interest for 1 year -> no interest for 18 months. I just purchased a washer at BBY -- no interest for 18 months with a rebate up front. We are already past the pt of diminishing returns for the retailers that are so desperate for sale they are willing to do this. Autos, Home and electronic goods are all there now ... we simply haven't gone over the abyss there, but we are very close. here's my theory on tech capital spending which is a little different -- and consistent with the news item the other day from Corning -- These firms were just plain freaked out by the rapidity with which business fell off -- remember Chambers 100 year flood. Because they were so freaked out -- they simply went ape. They mouthed "bottom, bottom" while they thought it was the end and acted accordingly -- layoffs, cutting expenses (part of the feedback which has destroyed capital spending). Now with inventories either moved at reduced prices or written down ... and a slowing in the descent, some tech cos are realizing the extent to which they freaked ... so these firms may pick up spending thinking slower desecent really does mean bottom, but I agree with what someone else posted on the subject -- there is nothing to encourage businesses to make additional capital investment now: I think => Any bounce is probably a year away at least. This is simply pundits seeing what they want to see and selling it to J6P, IMO.