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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (11498)	1/5/2002 5:15:14 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Brother Bum! Are we seeing an economic recovery before our very eyes? Could the broker/dealer index be an indication that smart money is putting their money where their beliefs are? This chart looks strong! stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[pb200!b10!b50!f][iut!Ub14!Ud20!Lh14,3!Lj[$spx]] Larry Kudlow says we're coming out of a recession. I'm not so sure about that yet, but trading what I see has been more effective than trading what I think. The broker/dealer index has been on a tear and continues to look strong. It's difficult to believe that this index would perform as strong as it has if a lot of smart money didn't think there's a possibility of an economic recovery sometime this year. (It doesn't make sense to me yet and the market may turn back around, but until then, taking advantage of short term trading should be the order of the day.) The broker/dealer index is trading above its 200 day moving average which is very bullish. A close below the 10 day moving average would indicate a "possible" reversal. CCI measures momentum and its off the chart. Could be an indication that things will turn back down, or we may just see some normal profit taking. The other indicators are showing the broker/dealer index approaching or reaching overbought range. I expect it to open higher Monday morning. Let's see if it stays there. But at this point the trend is very bullish! Also, AND THIS IS IMPORTANT, look at the low point of the index, at the 317.60 point. That hammer is similar in pattern to the one HAL shows now. The difference is the color which isn't significant at this point. The index hammer is white because the price didn't gap down at the open. If it did, the color would be red, just like the one HAL is showing. What is important is the pattern for the next trading day. The price opened even and closed up. That was confirmation of a trend reversal. HAL needs to open up and stay up on Monday. A confirmation pattern should see HAL around 14.50 - 14.75 in the near term, absent any further news developments, provided of course, the pattern confirms on Monday. That's what my Quija board says anyway. Just my humble opinion of course. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to get some food to toss at my friend KB, over on the old SD thread. dabum