To: Boplicity who wrote (5351 ) 1/7/2002 10:52:26 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 13815 U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Analyst Sees Early Stages of Cyclical Recovery In Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending January 07, 2002 10:40:00 (ET) MINNEAPOLIS, Jan 7, 2002 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Senior Optical and Electronic Manufacturing Technologies Analyst Greg Konezny today upgraded the following semiconductor equipment companies from Outperform to Strong Buy: Applied Materials (AMAT--$45.22), Coherent (COHR--$32.60), Entegris (ENTG--$12.47), Newport Corporation NASDAQ: NEWP--$23.96, #^) and Vecco Instruments (VECO--$38.10). Additionally, Konezny upgraded KLA Tencor (KLAC--$55.49) and Teradyne (TER--$33.78) from Market Perform to Outperform. Konezny upgrades these companies based on proprietary research, which suggests that the semiconductor capital equipment market is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery and could extend over the next couple of years. These indicators include: 1) improving health of semiconductor device manufacturers, and 2) recent reports from equipment companies that quotation and order activity is improving. "We expect the under-investment in integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing technology over the last six months will soon reverse and return to more normalized levels over the next 18 to 24 months," said Konezny. "Therefore, we expect equipment order rates will begin to recover during the first half of 2002, with expectations of acceleration during the second half of the year and into 2003." Konezny's new ratings are based on the potential earnings power of each equipment company during the next expected peak in equipment sales during 2004. He believes these stocks can achieve peak earnings multiples of 20 times to 25 times, based on historical forward valuation multiple data. "Based on our analysis, there appears to be more upside opportunity with the mid-capitalization names under coverage," said Konezny. "Our current favorites going into the next cycle include AMAT, COHR and NEWP." Additionally, Konezny believes that continued adherence to Moore's Law, which states that the number of electronic components that can be manufactured on a device doubles every 18 months, could drive the capital spending ratio back to historical levels. "Maintaining the technology roadmap that supports Moore's Law is getting more and more challenging and is driving IC manufacturers to invest more dollars in technology that supports smaller geometries, new materials and an increase in wafer size to 300mm," said Konezny. "This should be a significant factor in driving the capital spending ratio of device manufacturers back above 20 percent, from below 10 percent currently."