Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (141980)	1/7/2002 9:43:13 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, Just heard an executive on CNBC from Toyota talk about deflation in the auto industry. Just as expected with purchases that historically use credit. Joan

To: Earlie who wrote (141980)	1/7/2002 10:57:39 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Report from a long weekend of shopping in Boston. (apologize in advance for length) Wife and I went on a shopping spree this weekend. Doing our patriotic duty, of course. Thought I'd report the findings: Friday nite Children's Place at Downtown Crossing. Bought $70+ dollars worth of stuff (list) for less than $20 bucks. Little "one-sies" (one-piece cotton things to put the baby in) were $1.75 each, marked down from I think $8 bucks. At that price they're basically disposable -- it would cost more to wash them. Sweater (with little ducks on it) that was $18.50 list was $5. I would say 25% +/- of the store was on sale, and it was a mess and really picked over (the sale stuff). The rest of the store looked great. They are doing their spring re-set in a couple of weeks (I think the girl said 15 January) so they are blowing out a lot of stuff. My overall impression is that inventory is going to be pretty clean but margins might be weak in the January quarter (though I believe this is largely reflected in estimates); I mean, I've gotten stuff on sale at PLCE before but never with these kinds of mark-downs. Saturday Trip out to Braintree; power-strip heaven. Started out at the Borders/PetsMart/BigK/SportsAuthority/BedBath/Babies-R-Us/CompUSA/BestBuy power strip. Parking lot was pretty full, but not as full as on a lot of days that we've gone there; we were there on Saturday at +/- 11 am so a "normal" time. Babies-R-Us doing good business; lines seemed pretty much the same as from our last trip, which I think was just before Thanksgiving. Bed Bath also seemed normal in terms of the lines at the checkout -- that said I noticed fewer really FULL carts (there's usually a couple of people in line with the cart over-flowing with stuff) but I don't think I'd count that as a real indicator; might just be noise. The Best Buy was absolutely JAM-packed. Couldn't get a spot to park in front of the store, and there were just TONS of people inside. Prices are great AND they are offering 0% financing for 18 months on purchases greater than $400 bucks. We were pricing cam-corders, in case anybody knows anything about them and would like to pass their knowledge on. After that, we needed to eat. There is a Chili's down the road. Packed for lunch. We noticed across from the Chili's one of those Home Depot EXPO centers, so we decided to check it out. I swear there has to be $30mm worth of inventory / fixtures in that place; its 89k ft^2. It did NOT seem very busy, but I have never been in one before so I didn't have anything to compare it against. It DID seem like most of the "consultants" were busy, and this is NOT a store that you take stuff away from. So maybe it was doing about what it is supposed to do. Likely with 89k square feet and all that display inventory the place just by definition looks not very busy as it is so over-whelming. I did note that the prices were VERY high; we are paying much less for our appliances through the distributor we are working through than we would have gotten at EXPO. Next to the EXPO is a Tweeter, a pretty big and new (about 4 months) one. We still use the TV that my parents gave me at university, so at 20+ years old its probably fully depreciated and we thought we might look at a new digital one since the Tweeter was right there. The store was EMPTY (in terms of customers); that said its new so maybe people don't know its there yet; we only came upon it by accident ourselves. We got literally one hours worth of undivided attention from a salesperson and it looked like the other staff were just standing around. That said, he said business was rocking, both at their store and at Tweeter as a whole. Sunday In town on Newbury Street. Started at NikeTown; the place was empty, but it always seems empty. Not much on sale. Next stop Country Road, where I buy a lot of my casual clothes. 50% off everything. A very nice wool turtleneck sweater, wool long-sleeved top, pair of wool pants, and a really attractive leather jacket for $420 bucks total, including the alterations on the pants. Store is EMPTY; I would say about 30% of the ft^2 in the men's section has literally NO inventory and I would have bought a lot more stuff but they didn't have some things in my size (which is generally 'large' so its not like I'm some odd size). Guy behind the desk said they had started their 50% off sale before Christmas to clear inventory; it obviously worked. They had one of their best December's ever, but at a huge cost to profitability. I think Country Road is owned by a south African company. There were only a couple of people in the store, but I think that might have been more to do with the lack of inventory (quite a few people walked in and quickly walked out). Next stop was Gap Kids. We were literally the ONLY people in the store. Not much was marked down; man that place is expensive compared to PLCE. Next stop was Newbury Kitchens; they are doing our kitchen. Mark (the guy who owns/runs it) is still flat out, doing lots of business. He's noticed no slowdown at all. Overall, traffic on Newbury seemed light. That said, it wasn't a very nice day, and the Patriots were playing so maybe that detracted from foot traffic. Don't know how much of a read to make. fwiw, the guy at Newbury Kitchens, the salesman at Tweeter, and a consultant we talked briefly to at EXPO, ALL said "people are nesting; spending money on their homes; taking that money they would have spent travelling and investing it in their house". This I think has VERY much reached the point of 'conventional wisdom' at this point. As a general rule I think one wants to fade conventional wisdom. That's it for now. Cheers