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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomas who wrote (5932)	1/7/2002 10:10:46 AM
From: Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206325

We all owe Tomas continuing thanks for his bibliographic postings. As our resident librarian he is a great asset to our thread and provides a wealth of information many of us would not see. Tomas, you have been sharing articles with us for many months now and I know your contributions are deeply appreciated--and well utilized-

To: Tomas who wrote (5932)	1/7/2002 10:26:53 AM
From: Terry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

Tomas - Raymond James says bottom - Bear says not yet. RJ is always more bullish - but Shoemaker has consistently been more optimistic than the better known Leuffer at Bear. Place yer bets. Robin Shoemaker - Oil Service & Equipment Lowering EPS Estimates for 2002 The slump in North American oil and gas drilling that began about six months ago is not turning out to be the “short and shallow” downturn that the optimists expected. In our conversations with oil service companies in early 2002, we hear caution and concern about oilfield activity and pricing trends, especially in North America. By now it is clear capital spending on oil and gas drilling will be down 15%-20% in 2002 in North America and flat (at best) in the international markets. We believe oil service companies will convey a much less optimistic outlook for 2002 in their conf. calls discussing Q4 results and expectations for 2002. As recently as November and December of 2001, most of the oil service companies were adhering to a view that international markets would remain strong and that domestic markets would bottom in early 2002 and begin a brisk recovery in the second half of this year. We believe this stance is no longer realistic and the managements of the oil service companies are beginning to back away from their earlier forecasts of a short and shallow drilling downturn. We lowered our 2002 EPS estimates across the board: large and small oil service companies and offshore drilling contractors. (Both our old and new estimates for 2002 reflect the elimination of goodwill amortization under new accounting rules that came into force this year). On average we lowered our EPS expectations by 11%in 2002. The factors that combine to push earnings down are the trends in drilling activity and the pricing of equipment and services. The downturn in drilling is mostly confined to North America. In the international markets only Venezuela and Argentina appear to be headed down significantly in 2002. We think the cycle in oilfield services is not yet close to a bottom. We are only six months into the downturn (the last one was 18 months from peak to trough) and the evidences of the downturn are only now starting to appear in certain market niches. We look for a better buying opportunity in oil service stocks later this year. Our 11% average EPS reductions may not be the final round of estimate reductions for 2002, especially if international markets start to slow in terms of activity and weaken in terms of pricing.

To: Tomas who wrote (5932)	1/7/2002 10:47:43 AM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

J.P. Morgan Chase Raises Forecast for Oil-Demand Growth in 2002 By Alex Lawler London, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. raised its forecast for growth in world oil demand this year, citing an improved economic outlook in the U.S. and Asia, which account for more than half of global consumption. The second-largest U.S. bank expects oil demand to rise by 740,000 barrels a day in 2002, it said in a report. That's up from the 550,000 barrels a day it expected in early November, said Paul Horsnell, head of energy research. J.P. Morgan Chase was one of many forecasters that cut its oil use outlook in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks. In a report published Sept. 13 it foresaw 2002 demand growth of 1.1 million barrels a day, Horsnell said. A positive revision now reflects hope that the economic aftermath will be less severe than expected a few months ago. ``Pessimism within the oil market has been dominant and very deep,'' the report said. ``The importance of the revisions lies more in their direction than their magnitude.'' The revised oil forecast comes after J.P. Morgan Chase predicted U.S. gross domestic product would be the same in the first quarter as the last three months of 2001, better than the 2 percent decline it previously expected. The bank also increased its estimate of fourth-quarter growth in Asian countries such as Korea and Taiwan. The new oil forecast is higher than that of the International Energy Agency, which expects demand to rise by 600,000 barrels a day this year, and below the U.S. Department of Energy, which foresees growth of 800,000 barrels.