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To: robert b furman who wrote (2591)	1/7/2002 1:13:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 7827

Taiwan Gears Up to Meet Surging TFT-LCD Demand January 7, 2001 (TAIPEI) -- Several thin-film transistor liquid-crystal display makers are now aggressively expanding their production capacities to meet the strong demand that started early in the fourth quarter of 2001. A TFT-LCD maker said that about 14 million LCD monitors would be sold in 2001, and predicted that the figure would jump to about 25 million units in 2002. Industry sources said much of the new demand comes from people replacing traditional cathode-ray tube monitors with LCD models. Most leading makers in the line have received unprecedented big-ticket orders, including AU Optronics Corp. (formerly Acer Display Technology Inc. and Unipac Optoelectronics Corp.), Chunghwa Picture Tubes Ltd., Chi Mei Optoelectronics Corp. (CMO), and HannStar Display Corp. Hsu Jen-ting, vice president of CMO, said that his company has finally begun to see some light after a year-long slump in the TFT-LCD sector. CMO expects to deliver 220,000 to 240,000 LCD panels in October, a new monthly record for the company, and deliveries could reach 270,000 panels in November, he said. According to Hsu, CMO expects to deliver 2 million to 2.2 million TFT-LCD panels this year. Output should soar to 8 million panels in 2002, including Japanese production from the IBM Japan-invested International Display Technology (IDT), in which CMO recently became a major investor. Chen Shuen-bin, president of the newly merged AU Optronics, said his company received orders for about 600,000 LCD panels in October, and expects to deliver a record 500,000 to 550,000 panels this month. Chen added that orders for November have topped 600,000 panels, and demand is expected to remain strong through December 2001. Chen said that AU Optronics' fourth-quarter deliveries would far exceed 1 million panels, bringing the company's year-end shipments to about 4.2 million panels. He said that AU Optronics expects to turn out about 7 million LCD panels next year with the added capacity from the company's recent merger. AU Optronics plans to raise money for the installation of new production lines soon, Chen said. Chunghwa secured orders for more than 420,000 LCD panels in December 2001 and 460,000 panels for January 2002. The company is speeding up capacity expansions at its second TFT-LCD plants to meet the booming demand. Chunghwa expects to deliver about 2.2 million LCD panels in 2001 and about 4.5 million units a year after the new lines are installed. HannStar delivered a record 200,000-plus LCD panels in October, and expects to ship 220,000 panels in November. Some of the said LCD panel makers are also striving to cut production costs to enhance international competitiveness. AU Optronics plans to lower its materials costs by about 5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year and by about 15 percent to 20 percent in 2002. Chunghwa recently indicated that it has similar cost-cutting targets. (Commercial Times, Taiwan)

To: robert b furman who wrote (2591)	1/8/2002 5:03:50 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7827

From the "Brother, can you spare a dime?" files........ By 2025, fabs could cost $40 billion with litho tools going for $300 million Semiconductor Business News (01/08/02 15:16 p.m. EST) PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. -- What will semiconductor production technology and wafer fabs look like in the year 2025? That was the brainstorming question tossed out at high-level executives with semiconductor equipment suppliers during the Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here. As might be expected, the responses were entertaining as well as chilling. And, ISS panel discussion on Monday left many of those attending the session wondering how many chip makers and fab equipment suppliers will be around in 23 years. Only the strong and rich will survive, according to the consensus from the panel discussion. For example, a single wafer fab could cost a staggering $40 billion by the 2025 timeframe, said Kenneth Levy, chairman of KLA-Tencor Corp. during the panel discussion. In another ominous predication, Levy said he believes that lithography tools could cost as much as $300 million per system, based on current technology trends. While the costs of wafer fabs and processing tools will continue to soar, the chips themselves will head in the opposite and historical direction, getting smaller, faster, and--of course--cheaper. The long-term question facing the chip industry is whether it will be possible to maintain historical growth rates as semiconductor plants become more expensive and affordable to fewer players. Extrapolating from current technology trends and accelerating industry roadmaps, Levy predicted that chip makers will be processing wafers with device geometries of only "10-to-20 angstroms" in 2025. After the panel discussion, Levy told SBN that "for memories, we could see a terabit-on-a-chip." There was another ominous predications during the ISS panel discussion: The IC industry may be maturing and will not grow at its current rate over the next 25 years. The semiconductor industry has grown 35% over the last 25 years, from about $6 billion in 1975 to $210 billion in 2000, according to semiconductor analysts. Based on a 35% growth calculation, the chip industry should reach $7 trillion in revenues by 2025. But is it possible that the chip industry will reach that level of worldwide sales in 23 years? It's highly unlikely, responded James W. Bagley, chairman and CEO of Lam Research Corp. in Fremount, Calif. "If the IC industry grows to $7 trillion by 2025, then the semiconductor business could be 25 times larger than the electronics industry," Bagley noted. "I don't think that will happen." It's also unclear just what will drive the overall IC industry during the next two decades. Will it be the PC? Or, communications? Biotechnology? Or even space exploration? Bagley said he believes that the semiconductor equipment business may be the last to know what will drive semiconductor growth in the long term. "We are the most narrowly-focused people on the face of the earth--next to the Taliban," he quipped. Most chip equipment executives agreed on one predication: It will be the survival of the fittest by 2025. Only the strong IC and equipment companies will survive due to the soaring costs to stay in business, said Brad Mattson, former chairman and CEO of Mattson Technology Inc. of Fremont, Calif. In fact, he suggested, the IC market will resemble the automotive industry with a wave of consolidation reducing the number of players. "I think the same thing will happen to us," said Mattson, during the panel discussion. "The technical problems in the semiconductor industry will not cause Moore's Law to fail," Mattson added. "The economic problems in the semiconductor industry will cause Moore's Law to fail."