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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (27147)	1/7/2002 2:12:48 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

I finally figured out what my problem is with your 1857 chart. The 1930s Cowles Commission concluded that except for railroad stocks, virtually no other companies were traded consistently enough before 1871 to give an accurate long-term picture of market conditions. Most financial, industrial, and non-railroad transport companies did not trade for months at a time before 1871, even on the NYSE. RR stocks were actively traded from the mid-1830s and seemed to fairly represent the economic conditions of their times. A broad economic and geographic sampling of railroad stocks showed a 75% decline from 1857 to 1860. The best performance of railroad stock samplings from the period showed a double-bottom in 1857 and 1859. GNP declined almost 10% from 1856 to 1861. The Cowles Commission and others have tended to view the 1857 crash and subsequent depression as comparable in U.S. history to the 1929-1932 period.