Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StanX Long who wrote (58516)	1/8/2002 3:52:14 AM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Analysts see recovery in 2002, but disagree when and how fast Market researchers present first forecasts of the New Year at ISS meeting on Tuesday By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News (01/07/02 17:51 p.m. EST) siliconstrategies.com PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. -- During the annual Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here today, leading semiconductor analysts agreed to disagree. While the market researchers all said they believe IC markets will recover in 2002, they also had different opinions about how fast the business would rebound. In a press conference today prior to Tuesday's ISS forecasting sessions, some analysts were more upbeat than others. For example, a veteran analyst with VLSI Research Inc. predicted that the worldwide IC market would grow by a healthy 20.6% in 2002 over revenues in 2001. Last year, the IC sales fell by staggering 31% from record revenues in 2000, according to VLSI Research. Worldwide fab utilization rates are also expected to rebound in 2002, from about 75% today to 95% by year's end, said Risto Puhakka, who tracks the semiconductor equipment segment at San Jose-based VLSI Research. "We should see 95% by the fourth quarter of this year," Puhakka said, during the press briefing today. The upturn in fab capacity utilization could provide a much-needed boost to the semiconductor equipment business, Puhakka said. "The recovery for equipment will be modest in the second half of 2002," he said. Puhakka said VLSI Research currently estimates that chip assembly capacity worldwide is operating at 70% utilization. Test floors are running at 73% capacity and frontend wafer fabs at 75%, he said. "All of these manufacturing areas should cross the 95% point in the fourth quarter this year," he predicted. In total, VLSI Research projects that the chip equipment market will decline 5% in 2002 from sales in 2001, which worldwide tool revenues plunged 37.6%. But not all analysts were in agreement with VLSI Research's outlook. "They are looking for the market to skyrocket in 2002," said chip analyst Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. of Scottsdale, Ariz. "We don't see it that way," added McClean in an interview with SBN after the press event. McClean said he was a bit more conservative in terms of just how fast the business will recover. "I don't agree that [fab utilization rates] are going to be 90%," he said. "It's not going to be that kind of year."