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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (1560)	1/8/2002 6:17:12 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95616

SSB Semiconductors Q4 Earnings Preview Message 16879586 Source: Salomon Smith Barney and Company Reports OVERVIEW: CAN THE UPTURN DEVELOP SYMMETRY? Though the notion was controversial a couple of quarters ago, debate over whether the semiconductor sector hit a bottom in Q3 has pretty well dried up. Since bottoming in July at -51%, an all-time record, semiconductor orders have reaccelerated to -32%, a roughly 5percentage points per month change that is generally symmetrical with the slope of the downturn. Since bottoming in September at --45% yoy, an all-time record, semiconductor shipments have grown for two consecutive months by about 2% mom in October and November, which if it continues, would describe a roughly 25% annual growth rate within 12 months. If the upturn is aided by firmer pricing---as we have already seen in the microprocessor and DRAM segments---the recovery may show a high degree of symmetry to the downturn. But first, lets look at expectations.....<end snip>

To: The Ox who wrote (1560)	1/8/2002 8:08:43 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

I have NVLS, KLAC, KLIC, AMAT, LRCX, FSII, SFAM, TWAV, ASML and UTEK on my QuoteTracker screen. I also follow about 50 others semiconductor stocks on a daily basis and almost all of them weekly. At the present time I believe the group is overbought. Could it rise more? Yes based on an impending recovery in the industry. However none of the companies that have yet gave any clues about the status of the semiconductor equipment group have indicated a resumption of rapid growth (more like the reverse). I think we will see a bit of profit taking. Perhaps not but if we do get some selling I will be going long on a number of positions that I have not yet determined. BTUI has the highest RSI the stock has seen in six months. That could mean a breakout move but it could also indicate the stock will have trouble moving higher. Take a look at the chart what was formerly support could soon become difficult resistance: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lk14] I look for oversold stocks to go long on and wait for others to buy later. Right now there just aren't many oversold semiconductor stocks. Let me know when you do go long on something. Presently I am holding ESST and TQNT long. ESST is a breakout based on rapidly growing earnings. I'm expected 27 cents a share this quarter. TQNT is an oversold play. I am also in a short term (short position) of AMAT based on weakness I believe will beset the SOX over the next week. RtS