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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (19931)	1/9/2002 1:27:23 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

$ Flows into Stock Funds: The system I have works well on a contrarian basis with a slight lead. That is, every significant Market uptrend has a peak in $ flows into mutual funds 0-3wks prior to the Market peak. There are a fair # of marginal, rather than full confirmations, but no uptrend ever ends with negative cash flows. Foreign investors, including U.S. investors going overseas, have a tendency to be "dumb money" rather than "smart money", that is they/we tend to pour $ in large amounts near the end of a bull market, and take it out near the end of a bear market. Two reasons why I don't attempt to use it as a contrarian indicator: 1. The $ amounts involved are relatively modest. 2. Data on foreign inflows/outflows is usually only available on a quarterly basis, with a fairly long lag. By the time its published, it's useless.