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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (17911)	1/9/2002 9:38:22 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 196650

China Unicom, which on Tuesday announced the commencement of its long-awaited nationwide CDMA service, has now scaled back the launch to trial status. Well....I cant say I am surprised. Nothing is ever as it seems in China. I have to say that Q's forecast for chipset shipments makes more sense in light of this announcement. It always seemed to me that Unicom's launch should have had more of an effect on this quarter. Filling up inventory combined with initial demand should have resulted in at least 1-2 million extra chipsets. Hopefully, these will be shipped during the second fiscal quarter. Slacker

To: foundation who wrote (17911)	1/9/2002 10:45:21 AM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 196650

This only re-affirms the fact that the momentum from March to June is going to be huge based on 3 trends - 1) CDMA2000 launch in Japan 2) CDMA2000 launch in US with PCS 3) CMDA commercial trial going active in China I can remember the days when people used to pump trials for CDMA in China and India for 25,000 sub systems. Now, people are dissing 500,000 trial launches in China? Dismissing WLL nationwide across India? The only thing the GSM crowd has going for it is their 70% global market share which upgrades to 3G WCDMA by the end of this year & certainly by this time next year. WCDMA only looks to be about 12 months behind CDMA2000 at this point. I feel the market is forgetting the macro story for QCOM & CDMA and looking for too much immediate gratification. QCOM is keeping it's head down and shoulders square. I admire their persistent march down the international corridor - Korea, Japan, the US, Canada (this one's for you Kayaker), South America, China, & now India. WCDMA for next year!! Let Tero be a spiny propoganda chief for the GSM cabal. After all, they are preparing to become the biggest CDMA customer in the world. Over the next 12 months, people are going to realize GPRS is just a waiting game for WCDMA. It's not a real replacement handsets for GSM models since there are no software benefits, capacity gains, or other incentives for the carriers to push the handsets on their customers. Demand for data has to be driven by the carriers ability to handle the additional capacity for wireless data. There is no economic case for wireless data right now since most of the TDMA & GSM networks are capacity constrained. Since GPRS does not improve capacity, there is not much good for the operators to push wireless data services on their customers. The economic case for CDMA2000 is much different. Not only does CDMA2000 1X double capacity from CDMAONE, it can double capacity again once the 1X networks are loaded with an additional software upgrade. Now, there is plenty of capacity for wireless voice and unlimited capacity for wireless data throughput at a constant speed, especially since 1X will deliver data through packet data. Of course, the increase for 3G CDMA is going to be even bigger in the second half of 2002 once the GSM carriers start taking delivery of QCOM's WCDMA ASIC's. Bottom line, Tero is deluded to think that GSM is still a technology standard. CDMA2000, Windows CE, USB iLink & Memory Stick ports, PALM, Openwave's WAP, BREW, gpsOne, WCDMA - these are things that are all out of GSM's control. Their beloved little network baseband equipment is their only glory. This is not surprising given the fact that GSM and the one hit wonders never made a value added IT acquisition in the past 10 years. I would be seeing nothing but pure rage if I were a GSM investor. One more microcycle of GPRS until the WCDMA revolution takes over - with or without 1X. My guess is the demand for capacity will require 1X capacity improvements.