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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (27311)1/9/2002 6:40:11 PM
From: AllansAlias  Respond to of 209892
 
You had mentioned the other day that you thought perhaps rotation reached an extreme at tops. I have done a study of this phenomenon using COMPX versus XMI (non-tech).

Rotation does increase at turning points, and is perhaps slightly more common at tops than at bottoms.

The last decent extreme we had where the occurrences of up days in tech versus down days in non-tech was going into the Aug/2000 top.

The last decent extreme the other way, where we had an extreme in the frequency of tech down days versus non-tech up days, was going into Dec/2000 bottom.

Since then, rotation has become less common over time. If you plot the moving average of the count of days where we had rotation either way, you see a long wedge since Dec/2000 -- showing that rotation is easing slowly over time. It will be interesting to see when we break out of this wedge.

Is this clear?

edit: I forgot something, so see my next post to you coming shortly.



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (27311)1/9/2002 6:46:11 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 209892
 
I also plot the maginitude of the differences between tech and non-tech. You know, was the difference on a day only .5% or 10 times that at 5%.

That plot reached a high extreme, i.e., favouring tech, at the Mar/2000 high. It reached a corresponding low at the Apr/2000 low. Since then, it is also converging nicely in a wedge. It's quite something.