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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JSLyons who wrote (1583)	1/9/2002 8:44:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95615

I don't have any "hard numbers" for you, but I believe the answer, in general, is the "higher beta" of the 2nd and 3rd tier stocks. In the down turn, the smaller stocks really tank big time compared to the industry leaders. Then when the large up turn comes the smaller stocks have a much lower base from which to make the large percentage gains. Shown below is an update of the group performance since 21 Sept thru today. ASYT and KLIC as you point out have beaten out the bigger stocks. One other thing to note, however, is that AMAT, KLAC, NVLS and TER, the 4 semi-equips in the SOX, all have a higher percentage gain than the SOX. This means, of course, that they were the "little engines that could", lead the SOX to higher levels. I will try to post the SOX data on the next post similar to the data below to show the leaders. 9/21/01 1/9/02 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE SFAM 1.16 4.20 262 PRIA 10.11 25.22 149 WFR 1.74 4.10 136 MTSN 4.06 9.28 129 LTXX 10.85 24.11 122 KLIC 10.15 20.19 99 DPMI 26.44 51.55 95 ASML 10.09 19.52 93 CYMI 17.20 33.00 92 PLAB 19.05 34.97 84 VECO 21.81 39.12 79 PHTN 24.04 42.62 77 CMOS 11.48 20.30 77 BRKS 28.05 49.19 75 ASYT 9.58 16.66 74 KLAC 33.91 58.46 72 TER 20.10 34.65 72 HELX 15.31 26.00 70 COHU 13.40 22.07 65 AMAT 29.24 46.68 60 ATMI 17.29 27.39 58 LRCX 16.64 26.19 57 NVLS 28.55 44.42 56 SMTL 8.15 11.83 45 EGLS 12.76 16.91 33 NANO 16.20 21.40 32 UTEK 13.01 17.14 32 FSII 8.00 10.52 31 TGAL 1.35 1.68 24 TOTALS 439.72 759.37 73 SOX-X 381.01 584.27 53 COMPQX1423.19 2044.89 44

To: JSLyons who wrote (1583)	1/9/2002 9:01:54 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95615

Take a look at the performance of the Russell 2000. stockcharts.com!b200!d20,2%5D%5Bvc60%5D%5BiUb14!La12,26,9!Lk14%5D It seems to support your belief that smaller is better. Certainly that has been true in semiconductor equipment stocks. RtS

To: JSLyons who wrote (1583)	1/9/2002 9:19:31 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95615

Small caps are more volatile and carry more risk. In normal times, the usual semi-equip cycle, volatility equals risk. In difficult times, risk means the chance of business failure or, more likely, business results much below the historical norms. You can't tell it from the prices and valuations, but I think we are in the "difficult" times. I think the leaders will have much more reliable business performance than the small caps. At some point, the market will scrutinize performance, and you should be in the leaders, then. You have been able to ride the small caps because earnings have not been an issue in technology stocks during this rise from the 9/11 bottom.

To: JSLyons who wrote (1583)	1/9/2002 9:52:38 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95615

Here is another sort I have posted in the past, but I can't find it right at the moment so I will post it again. It shows the return for the group from 10/8/98 to 3/10/00 - the last bull market run for the group. Once again it shows the 2nd and 3rd tier stocks outperforming the large cap stocks. I think the reason is the same as before - the small caps start from the pits at the low point. 10/08/98 3/10/00 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE LTXX 1.31 49.63 3689 PHTN 2.25 78.00 3367 ASYT 3.13 59.00 1785 LRCX 2.93 54.15 1748 MTSN 2.75 42.50 1445 CMOS 5.00 69.44 1289 TER 7.82 89.56 1045 ASML 4.38 49.98 1041 NVLS 7.30 69.94 858 NANO 4.80 45.25 843 HELX 7.88 72.75 823 SMTL 2.57 23.22 804 CYMI 6.50 58.00 792 BRKS 8.38 74.00 783 AMAT 11.19 96.53 763 PRIA 10.25 87.63 755 COHU 6.75 57.38 750 KLAC 10.94 91.13 733 KLIC 5.19 41.44 698 FSII 4.25 22.88 438 EGLS 7.94 41.63 424 WFR 3.63 18.94 422 ATMI 11.50 56.31 390 VECO 21.63 100.00 362 PLAB 9.50 43.00 353 TGAL 1.81 7.69 325 DPMI 17.88 64.88 263 SFAM 9.50 27.69 191 UTEK 13.56 17.05 26 TOTALS 212.52 1609.60 657 SOX-X 189.90 1332.73 602 COMPQX1419.12 5048.62 256