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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (11612)	1/9/2002 11:24:31 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Kodiak, you may be right about that chip counting thing in January. I'm taking a page out of the book of Dabum and MetalTrader and not second guessing the run up in the techs. If it wants to go up farther, whether or not I agree, I am certainly willing to take that ride. I hope that I don't take the elevator all the way down when it doesn't reach the top floor. On an intellectual level, I also think that the market has gotten ahead of itself fundamentally but there are many factors involved including the baby boomer money, the fed cuts, the prospect of fiscal stimulus if things get bad, signs of real improvement in lower inventories and increasing orders in key sectors, and strength in the service sectors with continued strength in consumer spending and increasing public sector spending. These factors may justify the belief that the indexes will be higher at the end of the year and may justify any long term money that is getting in now. The truth is that almost all of us have underestimated the timing and strength of this latest up wave. I still would not buy the semiconductors at prices of last month, much less those of this month. What that make me; is WRONG! (Way to go Gottfried. It kills me to see asyt run up since that laggard was a slim possibility for me still.) In spite of my fear that this house of cards will collapse, until I see a down move that doesn't appear tentative and doesn't look like consolidation, I will stay invested at about the level I am at now. I am currently about 75% invested and almost all of it is in biotech and tech. The purpose of my last post was twofold, first, I couldn't resist messing around with your medical "patient" analogy which I thought raised the issues in very understandable terms. As a second purpose, I had fun writing it. g. What I was saying there was part of a theme that I have been thinking about. I suspect that we often underestimate the monster size and vitality of the U.S. economy when we focus our worries and concerns on the imbalances and inefficiencies that exist. The market may be wiser than we are in judging that the problems in the economy are not as large in a relative sense as they look in the focus of our microscopes, and in apparently determining that in the forseeable future the economy will not just survive, but become strong again. Maybe increases in real income will support increased consumer debt, maybe companies like enron that cook their books and skew the efficient allocation of capital are tiny pimples on the complexion of our huge economy and those pimples will heal over without scars, and maybe AG can keep the people confident and carefree that make the decisions that keep money circulating and people working. I know, and maybe there's a tooth fairy too. The point is that right now there is a strong move up in the markets that is too powerful and too sustained to be manipulation. That move, even if it fails tomorrow, says that the problems we see as major, may not be. Whether that view is correct or not, it deserves recognition as a force that is moving this market. Ed PS, I threw in a few long run on sentences so I wouldn't get that "murder" thing hung on me or get thrown in with slick Willy for a "slick prose" violation. Actually, being thrown in with Willy for articulative ability wouldn't be such a bad thing. I could never have kept his pace, however; the truth constrains me and with his talent, that's a big handicap.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (11612)	1/10/2002 2:53:55 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

When I'm looking at the market in general, I see that a lot of the fluff has been let out of the system and I suspect that much of it will never be allowed back in. At the same time, people are looking very closely at companies' performances, business models and, more importantly, future predictions. It seems to me that we are looking much closer than we were just a few years ago, and with very good reason. Skepticism is on the rise and rightfully so. As individual investors, we have the ability to pick and choose, bob and weave, duck and cover...whatever suits the individual. Short, long....it doesn't matter in the big picture. The key is success or, at a minimum, learning enough from one's mistakes so that they are not repeated. Regardless of what our hopes are for the future, hopes don't usually do very well with respect to investing. Still, hopes have a lot to do with how we think and act in the good ol' USA. Many on this thread discuss how, when and where we are going to put our money? in the hopes that either others are doing the same thing or that someone in cyberspace might be able to shed some light on possible deficiencies in our strategies. It's late and I realize I'm rambling.....until next time.....

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (11612)	1/10/2002 4:15:20 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Here's a good column by Safire in today's New York Times... Arafat's Implausible Denials By WILLIAM SAFIRE January 10, 2002 The New York Times WASHINGTON -- The radical Islamic ayatollahs of Iran were responsible for dispatching the shipload of 62 rockets and antitank missiles, along with 1,400 mortar shells, to their proxy warriors in the Middle East. Included were 3,000 pounds of powerful new C-4 explosives to be used by suicide bombers against civilians. The clear purpose of the 50 tons of Iranian arms, intercepted by Israeli commandos last week, was to help Yasir Arafat's coalition of terror win Iran's undeclared war on Israel. While the U.S. and Israel have for a decade been deluding themselves with a "peace process," Iran and its Palestinian proxies have been gaining ground in their war process. Caught red-handed, Arafat is denying any knowledge of what his chief lieutenants and other terror partners have been doing. His pretense of innocence calls to mind Chico Marx's line to a husband when caught in bed with the man's wife: "Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?" The arms were marked in the Iranian language, Farsi, loaded aboard just off Iran's shoreline, packed in watertight containers to be transferred to small boats and floated ashore in Gaza. The ship, the Karine A, was purchased by the Palestinian Authority's chief arms buyer for $400,000 14 months ago, just after Arafat rejected President Bill Clinton's Camp David offer and launched his terror campaign. The Karine A's captain, Omar Akawi, a loyal officer in Arafat's naval smuggling operation, promptly confessed the damning details of the purchase and transport of the weaponry, giving the lie to the terrorists' initial denials. He told reporters he thought the mission would be aborted after Sept. 11, especially after Arafat's "order" last month to end bloody bombings, but when his Palestinian boss last spoke to him from Greece, no such change of orders came. This proves to all but the most determinedly blind that the Iran-Arab terror coalition, even with Osama bin Laden's operation routed, has every intention of winning its war. What brought the radical Persians and Palestinians together? After all, Arafat sided with Saddam Hussein in the long Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, and was Iraq's cheerleader in the short U.S.-Iraq war a decade ago. Following Saddam's Persian Gulf war defeat, Arafat switched his allegiance to Iran. The ayatollahs then armed Arafat's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon and became what the U.S. State Department last year labeled the most active state sponsor of worldwide terrorism. European leaders are embarrassed because they recently gave Palestinians millions to feed the starving ? and now find that their money went for C-4 explosive to kill the innocent. (Actually, Europe's diverted funds went a long way; thanks to Iranian subsidy, for only $10 million Arafat received arms valued at nearly five times that.) More central to America's security, however, is the strategic reality revealed by the capture of the Karine A: Tehran has again shown itself to be the world arsenal of terror. Iran's ayatollahs have been escalating their sponsorship of terrorist war, yesterday on the "Great Satan" of America, today on Israeli Jews, tomorrow on the whole non-Islamic world. Iran's Hashemi Rafsanjani reminded us recently of the glorious day "when the Islamic world acquires atomic weapons." He acknowledged that in a nuclear exchange the nations of Islam would suffer damage, but only one great nuclear blast "would destroy Israel completely." Two terrorist-sponsoring nations are racing to acquire nuclear weapons. One is Iraq, whose scientists already have the know-how. The other is Iran, whose nuclear development is being recklessly aided by President Vladimir Putin of Russia, despite feeble American protests. Both Iran and Iraq have restive populations longing for freedom from political and religious repression. In conversations over the years, the Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon have said they thought radical Iran would be the greater danger; Americans like me consider Saddam's threat more immediate. Iranians and Iraqis require liberation before their dictators gain nuclear superpower. Target practice against terrorists in Yemen or Somalia may buy Washington time, but George Bush's big decisions are (1) how quickly we pre-empt before being forced to retaliate, and (2) which major terrorist sponsor comes first. Saddam is in the lead, but the militant ayatollahs are closing fast.