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To: Lucretius who wrote (142700)	1/9/2002 11:20:11 PM
From: stomper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

AJC 72 hour indicator works again. It has now worked as a sell signal 13 of 15 times within the last 26 months. All I need is 17 more instances and I have a statistically valid system. -g- -dave

To: Lucretius who wrote (142700)	1/9/2002 11:24:25 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Yep - GET READY. I am working on picks with targets. In the meantimes as if pro forma earnings were not enough we have pro forma headlines. Sprint sees 2002 capital spending down 40 percent biz.yahoo.com Look at the bold headline Read the article CAPEX down 40% headline CAPEX down 50% (in fine print) LOL M

To: Lucretius who wrote (142700)	1/10/2002 12:28:09 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

The Criminal Mind I hope we have determined this is a sideways market cause it sure seems like one to me. Tippet said P/C ratios are meaningless. Well they are IF we are strongly trending. I see no trend here. In a sideways market Max Pain seems to work very well on average. In a strongly trending market P/C ratio is meaningless because of delta hedging. As long as people are running up the prices of stocks, the number of calls is meaningless as the sellers of those calls have to go long as a hedge (and the puts expire worthless). As long as people are buying puts (and the market is going down), the sellers of puts have to hedge by going short (further driving the stocks down) and the calls expire worthless. In a sideways market, the crooks will drive stocks towards max pain so they can collect both halves of the "options pie". Equity Calls have increased to absurd levels. QQQ or index puts appear to have been used as a hedge or just by those who think we are headed down, and thus are relatively high. The criminal mind wants to know how the crooks can make the QQQ puts expire worthless, as well as the QQQ calls, and all the equity calls people have been buying as well. Since the ratio of equity puts is small, that seems to me to be the "smart money" right now. Well looking at the options chain, there are huge numbers of MSFT puts and Calls at strike 70. This is interesting. Max pain appears to be 70 (to my eye anyway) so MSFT puts do not seem to be such a great idea. QQQ max pain(to my eye is 40, perhaps 39). So QQQ puts may be profitable, as might a QQQ short, but probably not as rewardable as selected equity puts or shorts. Remember the criminals want to peg the QQQ nearly where it is and tank the high fliers like BRCD etc. So.... Rally MSFT, rally selected garbage and possibly rally bios. That will prevent the QQQ's from collapsing too far. But there are insane numbers of CALL positions on the following stocks with relatively little put interest. BRCD BRCM KLAC I fully expect those to tank while they prop up the index with MSFT (possibly INTC, SEBL, possibly QCOM, bios and other unknown garbage). Based on Call positions and intrepretations that we are indeed headed towards max pain (A hypothesis that could be wrong) Here are my targets BRCD: 35 possibly 30 BRCM: 45 KLAC: 55 possibly 50 CSCO: 20 possibly 17.5 (most likely in between but no more than 20) INTC: very tough. INTC will close on an exact option point but that point is unknown. The likely targets are 35 32.5 or 30. I am willing to rule out 30. That leaves us with 35 or 32.5. To prop the QQQ's up it could be the higher number. So INTC might not be the most profitable short here, but it could also be one of the safest. I sincerely doubt INTC closes above 35 based on huge call position at that strike. Best guess 32.5 on the nose. Second guess 34.98 on the nose. MU: bears love shorting an putting this sucker but it might not drop much. They may need it to prop up the SOX so it does not fall too far and there are reasonable numbers of bets against it. Targets are 32.5 possibly 30 but I doubt the latter. JNPR: fair number of bets against this pig. Can it possibly rally if we drop? I doubt it but here are the targets. 22.5 and 20. Thus there should be better plays should my theory pan out. SEBL: small option interest compared to the biggies like INTC CSCO MSFT. They could use this favorite to help keep thing afloat. Target anywhere between 30-35. Thus there are better opportunities. AMZN: A bold prediction here. 10.0 On The Nose EBAY: 65 possibly 60 VRTS: 45 possibly 40 EMLX: 45 possibly 40 but relatively low option interest and a "darling at the moment so less likely to tank possibly. QLGC: 55 possibly 50 QCOM: can this really rise? That is what I see. targets 50-55. This will help prop up the index if they can pull this off. Favorite shorts in the group BRCD BRCM VRTS KLAC AMZN Good luck. This does depend on us sinking into expiry. If that does not happen, the alternate scenario is delta hedging rally to absurd heights. Be careful. M

To: Lucretius who wrote (142700)	1/10/2002 6:40:02 AM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Some more market voodoo for you.... >>January 10, 2002 History Shows First 5 Days Can Put Bulls on Right Path By FLOYD NORRIS ne of Wall Street's most noted indicators — the first five trading days of January — has sent its signal. And it says that this will be a good year for the stock market. When the market goes up during the first five days, "it almost always indicates that the market will go up" during the year, said John McGinley, the editor of Technical Trends, a newsletter published in Wilton, Conn. The indicator was invented for the Dow Jones industrial average, but it has also worked for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Its record for the Nasdaq composite index is more spotty, but it has done a good job in years, like this one, when the Nasdaq average got off to a very good start. When all three indexes start the year strongly, as they did this year, the market has usually done well. During the first five trading days of this year, through Tuesday, the Dow rose 1.3 percent, the S.& P. climbed 1.1 percent, and the volatile Nasdaq composite soared 5.4 percent. It was the third-best start ever for the Nasdaq index. All the indexes slipped yesterday. There have been 16 years since 1972, the first full year of the Nasdaq composite, when all three indexes rose during the first five days. Of the first 15, 10 ended with all indexes up for the year and 4 others produced gains in at least one of the indexes. Only 1973 turned into a bad year for all the indexes. For the Nasdaq average, this was the 11th year when the average rose at least 2 percent during the first five sessions. Of the first 10, eight were followed by good years, with the average gaining at least 10 percent more. The years that had declines after strong starts were 1984 and 1987. Mr. McGinley, who noted that the five- day indicator was first proposed by Yale Hirsch, the editor of the Stock Market Almanac, said that from 1942 through last year, the first five days of new years had shown gains in the Dow in 39 years and declines in 21. Of the 39 rises, the Dow went on to show gains in 32 of the years, while falling in just 7. The years the indicator missed the Dow were 1966, 1973, 1974, 1981, 1984, 1990 and 2000. A look at the failure years shows that they tended to come either around recessions or at major market turning points. The great bull market of the 1950's and 60's began to sputter out in 1966, as the Dow first approached 1,000, a level that was to prove a challenge until it was passed for good in 1982. The worst postwar recession and bear market took place in 1973 and 1974, and there were recessions that began in 1981 and 1990. The 1990's bull market topped out in early 2000. This year begins with the economy in recession but Wall Street is confident the end of the downturn is near and a strong recovery will follow. If that forecast turns out to be wrong, then the market is likely to suffer. There is, of course, no particular reason to think that any period as short as five days should provide a reliable market forecast. And the five-day January indicator is not as strong as it looks when one considers that the market goes up in most years. Therefore, any indicator that points to gains is likely to be right much of the time. Still, there is a correlation. Over the last 60 years, 44 have shown gains for the Dow. That works into a 73 percent rate. But on years when the first five days were up, 82 percent of the years showed gains. Similarly, in years when the first five days were down, 44 percent of them have turned out to be down years. That is well above the overall average of 27 percent down years.