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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (13132)	1/10/2002 2:31:45 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Just out of curiosity - why 1931? Because 2002 is two years after the tech wreck of 2000?

To: bambs who wrote (13132)	1/10/2002 9:05:52 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi bambs, welcome here. I don't have the courage to go short in this goofy market where stock seem to rally from way overpriced to obscenely overpriced and then some, and "bottom" at merely seriously overpriced. Total collapse? You are scaring me bambs. I find myself describing your thinking as directionally aligned with my own, but rather extreme. The scary part is that two years ago I also thought you were directionally aligned but extreme. And look what came to pass... Yikes!!! So if your futurometer is as good going forward as it was in the past, well we are in deep doo-doo! Me, I am biased towards tradermike's view of a long long channel where valuations catch up with prices and a long dark night of inflation corrects asset values so that loaves of bread per share end up at more traditional levels. So yes, I think that we need to go down by another half from here. Thereabouts. But over the next 10 years or so. Which net of inflation would leave us pretty much in a channel from where we are today. Or maybe we collapse from here and then go up indexed with inflation. Six of one, half dozen of the other. Ten years from now it's the same place. Seems to me that the Powers That Be prefer the long slow sideways grind. Just like every other American response to Made in Japan: it'll be bigger and more expensive and more complete and accompanied by much much more banner-waving, hype and hoop-la. Just my two bits. John