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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: keokalani'nui who wrote (5393)	1/10/2002 12:05:41 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 52153

Wilder, Both Virco and Virologic(VLGC) have Phenotypic AIDS tests whereas, last time I looked at VGIN it had a Genotype test only. Phenotype allows actual measurement of specific resistance where as the Genotype test looks for genetic mutations in the AIDS virus, then infers what drug resistance should be present. Of course, VLGC funded research shows that the Genotype tests are less effective. VLGC stumbled when they attempted to concentrate on a small number of centers with a very small sales force ( I think it was 6 people). In short, this area of testing looks like it will become increasingly competitive unless some "munches" occur. I no longer look at it as an area for outsized returns to investors. ... but then I've been wrong before. Regards, Ian

To: keokalani'nui who wrote (5393)	1/10/2002 1:06:21 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Wilder, I've done well with VGIN in the past (I owned it starting back in 1999) but (fortunately) haven't owned it for quite a while. I suspect they are currently in the post-approval doldrums that happens when the eagerly-awaited revenues don't match up to the dream. It's often a very good time to buy, particularly with a product that you think will do well in the long run but might be slow to catch on. I do think that their product works and will be ever-more needed as more resistant strains spread and new drugs are developed. I have no idea what their margins are like, though - this was always a concern in their early years. I haven't looked at them (and their phenotyping and genotyping competition) recently, but was intending to do so. Peter