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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (11624)	1/10/2002 1:36:32 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

ed, no I don't necessarily think that they are seeing fundamentals that you are missing. And shorting the market the past three months would have been technically wrong as well as impoverishing. In September, three primary technical indicators (as opposed to charts) were showing a near term bottom. The put/call ratio, the investor sentiment indicators and the volatility index. All three were lined up indicating there just weren't any sellers left. Now two of those three are flashing warning signals. The put/call ratio is still bullish with option trading weighted toward puts. This is an important indicator and one I am not ignoring. But 1 out of three isn't the risk ratio I look for. I just finished reading an analyst's report on a biotech company which he was quite positive on. Apart from the science, one of the basic premises was that the company was attractively valued on a comparative basis to other similar biotech companies. That is hardly my idea of a solid foundation for valuation. That is my concern with some of the fundamental work being done. It is rather incestuous in nature when the compelling model is comparing it to others in the same industry rather than earnings, t-bills, cash flow etc. This kind of valuation is SO subjective it will create volatility and opportunities constantly. For those charts and momentum are the only way to go. Unless looking forward very long term. I just prefer to swing at really slow pitches. I have no problem selling a stock at 10 and buying it back at 11, if it looks stronger at 11 than it did at 10. Don't be beguiled into believing fundamentals unless you are value investing. If you are, there may be no tech stocks that are interesting at the moment. MT