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To: Keith Feral who wrote (110636)	1/10/2002 1:49:52 PM
From: arun gera	Respond to of 152472

>China, India> The handset price in India and China is between $100-200, an amount that is approximately the monthly salary of most college graduates. It is incredible that so many Chinese buy cell phones. And the growth rate in India is still running at about 100 percent a year. In US, a typical subscriber only pays 1-3 percent of his monthly salary for a handset. And the growth is slowing in US and Europe. Therefore there is little elasticity of demand (subscribers) as the price of a handset drops. India has only about 3 million cell phones currently. There are about 50 million scooter/motor cycle owners in India. Each of the scooter/motor cycle owner is a potential wireless customer (Probably spends about Rs 500 per month on gasoline). That number should be achievable in 5 years. I don't foresee the wireless penetration reaching greater than 20 percent in India in the next 10 years. So 200 million will be the upper limit. Arun

To: Keith Feral who wrote (110636)	1/10/2002 2:17:47 PM
From: Rajala	Respond to of 152472

China numbers don´t add up, Keith my old buddy. According to Global Mobile Daily (Jan 8th) the main focus of Unicom is the contract customers. Sounds like a fantastic plan, not much unlike in the good old days when brilliant people were selling the minutes like air plane seats. Remember those? However, our Chinese friends don´t get many of these contract guys, 16% of their 1.2 million monthly uptake. In other words, let me get my slide ruler out... er...yep, monthly 192,000 contract customers. If we suppose that half of their subs go CDMA instead of GSM (fairly optimistic figure since all the new subs brought in by churn already have a GSM phone by default, and GSM has much better coverage in China), they get 96,000 a month. If we suppose that “main focus is the contract customers” means 50/50 mix, you can throw in a similar quantity of pre paids. All in total adds up to a fantastic 4% level of the monthly average of 5 million new subs in China. Its a long way to Tipperary as they say. - rajala