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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (110641)	1/10/2002 1:28:39 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

Re : Q earnings est. always exclude China -- YES, that is exactly what I remember also. If this is true, maybe we can "connect the dots" for an "actionable" complaint to the enforcement division of the S.E.C. ... Jon.

To: limtex who wrote (110641)	1/10/2002 1:56:50 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

All the analysts are convienently ignoring the reality of chipset sales to China the same way they used to ignore the reality of royalties from handset sales. Analysts used to lowball royalty estimates by $20 million a quarter, giving Qualcomm room to beat their estimates. I am willing to bet Qualcomm sold some CSM and MSM chipsets to China this quarter, as Unicom prepares to launcha 10 million sub system. The light numbers for GSM sales this quarter in China and the 500,000 pre-enrolled CDMA subs for Unicom give Qualcomm room create a slim margin of upside surprise. The danger for Qualcomm bears is the lead time between chip sales and handset sales. Chip sales lead handset sales by 1 to 2 quarters as wireless carriers build inventories of new handset products to launch new marketing campaigns. VZ said they would be in a position to buy CDMA2000 models in the next 4 weeks once the handset pass their compliance tests. PCS is already selling entry level CDMA2000 models. There is no correlation between weak handset sales this quarter and QCOM's quarterly chipsets. The weak handset shipments are a function of Qualcomm's weak chipset orders from September. Stronger chipset sales for Qualcomm in December will drive better handset sales in March as handset makers are ramping volume of CDMA2000 models for a Q1 launch in Japan and a Q2 launch in the US. There is a slingshot effect as volume shipments of ASICs drive future handset levels. Low handset volumes this quarter only reflect the inventory reduction of CDMAONE models, which will no longer be produced after March by most ahndset makers. March chipset volumes for Qualcomm be be driving June handset volumes. Qualcomm will be capacity constrained if they are filling chipset orders for the coordinated launch of CDMA2000 nationwide in Japan, the US, Canada, South America, and China - not to mention Korea. People should expect a v shaped recovery in the rate of demand for handsets not only for new subs that have been on the sidelines, but for replacement sales for the first time in 2 or 3 years.