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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (46167)	1/10/2002 8:43:31 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Briefing.com Updated: 11-Jan-02 General Commentary Not much new, as investors continued to play waiting game ahead of earnings season (which begins next week)... Nasdaq ended up a mere two points after spending the day confined to a relatively tight range... Considering the lack of new developments, here are some random thoughts on the sector: While Thursday's gain was nothing sensational, sector's resilience remains impressive... Since bottoming in late September, Nasdaq has only experienced one losing streak longer than two days, and that was a three-day affair back in October... In other words, fighting the tape hasn't been a wise idea. For those investors that have sat on the sidelines waiting to "see the whites of the recovery's eyes" before jumping back in, take note that the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average is about to cross above its 200-day moving - a signal that the Nasdaq's advance is for real. We've been talking about guidance numbers lately and think it deserves a revisit here... As of this writing our database shows that 189 tech companies have guided estimates lower while 101 firms have raised estimates... Compare that to last quarter when the ratio of bearish to bullish guidance was 5.4 to 1 (357 down to 66 up) and you can see why traders are more optimistic about the future. Despite resilience, improving long-term technical tone and more favorable guidance, short-term technicals continue to argue for correction... One such indicator that received plenty of pub during the bear market is the Volatility Index (VIX)... VIX is near low end of multi-year range... Typically, readings in this area have corresponded with near-term pullbacks. Finally, widely followed Philadelphia Semiconductor, or SOX, index stalled out near 600 once again... Need to see support near 550 hold in order for index to make a near-term push through this stubborn ceiling... If this floor doesn't hold, will be tough for SOX or rest of tech sector to sustain upward momentum over short-term. Robert Walberg