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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (20881)	1/10/2002 10:43:02 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

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To: Softechie who wrote (20881)	1/10/2002 10:44:01 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Softechie, This is basically my view on the market. That major sell program yesterday to take the Nasdaq down so fast really concerned me but I was relieved that the Nikei was not down 300 to 400 points last night and that the US market held up today. Today, we find out that Smith Barney changed the asset allocation from Overweight US STOCKS -to- Underweight. They moved 2 notches down! Of course these guys are going to announce this move AFTER it is already done. That is why yesterday's drop does not concern me much anymore. In my opinion, given the strong earning that some are expecting next week, I would think that a lot of short positions are going to be closed -- meaning a rally Friday afternoon. Will it crack 2100 soon? I don't know but I do think it approaches it in the coming days---if I have to guess I would say we go over 2100 first. However, I feel that the market will then move lower (starting sometime mid next week) but not down as much as you expect. IMHO, this looks like a pretty stable level for stocks--ie..1900 to 2100 range on the Nasdaq. The next move up would occur just after the next dip that I expect to start next week and last a few days. I might then buy aggressively just before or after January short interest data is released (late January)--but only if it has come down enough. Just my plan as it exists today and I would probably change my strategy if the market does not go as I expect it. As for that MAX Pain of 39-40 on the QQQ---I don't think it will work in the the coming big earnings week. That also means a short squeeze on the way because I believe shorts piled on yesterday. Just my best guess at this point. Of course, you probably think I am way off base. I am due to be wrong in a big way.<g> Good Luck. jmho.

To: Softechie who wrote (20881)	1/10/2002 11:15:11 PM
From: samim anbarcioglu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

softie, <<? Pull back to 1750 this month? >> 1900 - 1850 is the lowest it will go.. but that is part of the course. The course being... Of course the next bubble. There seems to be no avoiding it. We seem to be heading toward another another bubble all the while rational people who believe that the market is being irrational will be served as lunche (not really, only their portfolios). Everything is looking better now thanthey did last summer, last fall, last christmas, people feel better, and that is the ultimate indicator of coming economic recovery. Of course you know that economic recoveries are preceeded by stock market advances. This is apparently where we are now. Argue all you want with the market, it does not listen to you to take the queue for its direction. If it is going up, it is goiong up. If it is going down, it is going down. Please stop telling me what it should be doing. Market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent. At any rate, when these comnpanies start reporting double the consensus, the p/e ratios will come right around. Why will this happen? Simple.. general economic recovery. It is clear to me that you have seen one yet, come out in full force from a recession. It will take your breath away. The productivity, profitability, quarter after quarter, full employement, creativity. it is right around the corner, and we have turned the corner. At the moment we are looking at it.