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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: inesa who wrote (46185)	1/11/2002 12:53:45 AM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Welcome to the porch inesa. dealer

To: inesa who wrote (46185)	1/11/2002 1:04:25 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Greenspan on Road as Recovery Hopes Climb Friday January 11, 12:12 am Eastern Time By Glenn Somerville WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With signs emerging that the U.S. recession may be loosening its grip, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan heads for the West Coast with the world wondering whether he will signal the end of the central bank's rate-cutting spree. The most closely watched of the Fed chief's speeches occurs on Friday in San Francisco when Greenspan delivers his first comments on the economy's prospects since last October. He speaks on Thursday in neighboring Oakland on the far less controversial topic of financial literacy. Analysts say investors will be concerned both with Greenspan's assessment of whether the economy has bottomed out and -- more importantly -- with any hints he offers about the likely shape and vigor of a coming recovery. ``People are going to be looking for some inflection-point about the economy from the chairman,'' said economist Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter in New York, noting that recent minutes of Fed policy meetings have been ``peppered'' with comments on the need to be ready, at some point, to reverse a year-long rate easing cycle. The minutes, or records, of the Federal Open Market Committee, are released with about a six-week delay, after the subsequent meeting. 'RECALIBRATE' RATE POLICY ``The paradigm of recalibrating monetary policy to recovery is going to be a bigger and bigger issue going forward,'' Berner added. ``So people will be looking for whether Chairman Greenspan believes the economy is on firmer footing and whether we're correspondingly closer to a turn in policy.'' Greenspan's kickoff 2002 trip comes after an exceptionally hectic year in which Fed policymakers slashed U.S. interest rates 11 times starting Jan. 3, 2001, to try to soften the impact of a recession that took hold last March. Rates now stand at levels last seen 40 years ago. The trend-setting fed funds rate, the Fed's primary tool for influencing monetary policy, now sits at 1.75 percent. The trip also comes at the beginning of a traditionally busy Washington season when the government is shaping its budget and the Fed is preparing for next month's semi-annual address by Greenspan to Congress on economic conditions. The highlight of Greenspan's visit comes Friday when he speaks to the Bay Area Council, a group of 275 business leaders, in San Francisco. The Fed lists his topic simply as ''The Economy'' and it will be his first economic assessment since speaking to Congress on the topic last October in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. The speech follows a Thursday address in Oakland on financial literacy. Greenspan will take questions after the Oakland address but is not expected to do so on Friday. Much has changed since the Fed chief told lawmakers last October that it was unclear how seriously the economy might be harmed by aftershocks from the Sept. 11 attacks that wiped the World Trade Center from the map and damaged the Pentagon. At the time, the most carefully heeded of U.S. policymakers said, ``Households and businesses, confronted with heightened uncertainty, have pulled back from the marketplace, though that withdrawal has been partial and presumably temporary.'' The downturn has caused real pain -- more than 1.3 million jobs lost since last March. But in recent weeks Fed officials have voiced rising optimism that the bleakest part of it is near or at an end, even though some have suggested private economists who believe the recession has already ended may be a little ahead of themselves. TALK UP CONFIDENCE ``We can all be confident recovery is on the way,'' Anthony Santomero, president of the regional Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said on Tuesday. ``One reason for such confidence is our country has the biggest stimulus and lowest interest rates we have had for a very long time.'' Another regional Fed president, Jack Guynn of Atlanta, said on Monday there were ``hints'' of economic stabilization but added that did not necessarily mean the U.S. central bank's rate-easing cycle was over. ``We have some more room and if we need it, my presumption is that we'll use it,'' Guynn said. That heightens interest in any indications Greenspan may offer in advance of the first scheduled meeting of the Fed's policymaking FOMC on Jan. 29-30. Economist Sung Won Sohn of Wells Fargo & Co. of Minneapolis said he thought one more Fed rate cut was in the works for Jan. 30, especially if it appears that a Bush administration push for an economic stimulus package remains stalled. ``Without a stimulus package, there may be a need for another confidence-boosting measure from the Fed,'' Sohn said, adding, ``The coming debate is going to be on the strength of a recovery and on the shape of a recovery.'' In contrast, Berner of Morgan Stanley said he anticipated no rate change by the Fed at the conclusion of the January meeting. ``I think it's pretty well over,'' he said in reference to the easing cycle. He said it remains unclear what will trigger an eventual reversal in policy to rate hikes and when that will occur. The economy's crawl back to expansion, whenever it comes, is not expected to be a vigorous one. ``The recovery will be swift, but not spectacular in its robustness,'' Wells Fargo economist Scott Anderson said in his weekly commentary. Traditionally, the Fed has not begun raising rates until after unemployment peaks and begins to fall. The unemployment rate hit 5.8 percent in December -- highest since April 1995 -- and is projected to go higher yet, which likely means that any rate rises remain in the distant future.

To: inesa who wrote (46185)	1/11/2002 3:56:27 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Why Enron Went Bust... Start with arrogance. Add greed, deceit, and financial chicanery. What do you get? A company that wasn't what it was cracked up to be. FORTUNE Monday, December 24, 2001 By Bethany McLean fortune.com