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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (6331)	1/11/2002 9:27:20 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi Louis, Agree with your points, as long as we maintain late Nov/early Dec price of gold levels, I consider the move intact. I do feel I should clarify why I still think FA is supportive in face of declining gold lease rates, increasing COT short positions and reported high bullish sentiment levels. Lease rates, as I have alluded to before, may not be as indicative as they were in the past as the carry trade is under low interest rate pressure. Also, likely there is less gold being hedged by producers, less demand etc. So I don't think we'll see rates move a lot until a real short squeeze starts. COT increase in short positions, they are playing the playbook from the last five years. It will take awhile for the commercials to understand it's a new game, so I expect this indicator to lag badly. Have heard of bullish sentiment being reported as high as 62%. Well, the same sources reporting of ultra low bullish sentiment didn't help the POG much over the last four years, now did it?? I put more emphasis on the sentiment from the various chat rooms and boards I continue to read over the years. I admit I barely had time to keep up with this lately, but what I have read is more of the cautious wall of worry, tentative bullish sentiment, than the rocket launch train leaving station desperately hopeful stuff of many little gold flurries the past few years. valutraders comment of "There you go, getting me bullish again when I've been doing so well trading on my disbelief <g>." sums that up very nicely and is a very healthy expression of this outlook. The bullish consensus expressed here on this thread I will not discount, because this is one sharp and ahead of the curve thread! One of the most important indicators to me is the fact that gold is going up with little current support from fundamentals, with no news that could pass as an worthy explanation for its price action. This was my fundamental clue for the 99 September rally, the news that moves the price is only known after the fact, an old market axiom that is especially pertinent for gold. The same 99 price action that was met with disbelief by a lot of goldbugs who had been calling for a rally for nearly three years by that time. News is often a terrible way to trade gold or gold stocks. These factors, combined with a different "movement", for lack of a better term, in the TA for POG and some gold stocks (volume being one blatant example), indicate to me the excellent possibility, IMHO,that 2002 may be the best year for gold out of the last five. Likely this is my last chance to post until late Sunday or Monday, so don't be offended (all) by any slow or lacking responses. Best Regards, Roebear