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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 249443 who wrote (13669)	1/11/2002 5:07:49 PM
From: rjm2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79128

Is this the insider buying you are talking about ? Looks like one guy was selling and the other buying. Not sure its even an open market transaction. And, no reported buying since 9/11, which is something I look for since that changes things for a lot of companies. Its worth keeping an eye on, but this is not enough for me to buy. But then, maybe thats why i am sitting here with more cash than I have ever had and not knowing what to do with it ! LOL 15-Aug-01 NELSON, JOHN P Director * 217,540 AIF Other Disposition at $5.05/Share 15-Aug-01 MCCARTHY, MICHAEL R Chairman of the Board,Officer and Director * 812,310 AIF Purchased at $5.05/Share. Cost of $4,104,602. 15-Aug-01 NELSON, JOHN P Director 261,426 AIF Other Disposition at $5.05/Share

To: 249443 who wrote (13669)	1/11/2002 6:33:51 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 79128

mrcjmoney My entry into an issue isn't based on market cap or trading volume or price per share (per se). The issue has to be traded on a major exchange (no BB or pennies), usually it has to be US traded because I feel more comfortable with US GAAP than any other. I look for cash flow, and then paying a price for that cash flow that allows me to make a great return. I don't look at future cash flow, I don't discount to present value, and I derive cash flow by starting with the change in cash for the period and working my way back up through the statement of cash flows through financing and investing entries. I don't look at EPS because, to me, it's bogus. If the cash flow last year would have made it a good investment, and the cash flow the year before would have made it a good investment and the current YTD cash flow makes it a good investment, then I'm interested to look further. Usually I start off with a list that I found somehow....here, stock screeners, recommended lists, whatever....and then use Yahoo Profiles to winnow out the obviously overpriced, over-indebted, under-profitable companies. There's just not enough hours in the day to be thorough on all of the stocks, so this process eliminates anywhere from half to all of whatever list I have. Then I take the survivors and do my quickie cash flow analysis for the last 4 periods. Most are eliminated on this step. Those few that survive go to the full number analysis of balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows for the current YTD and the prior two full years. Few survive. But those that do generally have proven to have more winners among them than any other methodology I've used. Timba

To: 249443 who wrote (13669)	1/13/2002 1:01:29 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79128

re: "Marty Whitman always repeats the mantra: a bargain that stays a bargain is no bargain." I guess his pick of CPCL keeps reminding him of that! I've followed him into that one, and from what I can see, he still has it. Unfortunately so do I. Since 7/99. And when the stock came down to 2x cash and 2/3 book value in 2000, I added more. Now the stock is below cash, which mgmt. is trying to conserve given that CPCL is very (imo) unprofitable. And CPCL is about .4x book value. That CPCL is trading below net current assets may not outweigh the negatives that sales declines continue year after year, and earnings losses seem to be increasing. Still, this week I added more to my position. Paul Senior

To: 249443 who wrote (13669)	1/29/2002 11:09:24 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79128

mrcjmoney, you mentioned TWK: I'll take some today at current price. Message 16898256 Insurer selling at low price/book. Also at relatively low price/sales. Several value investors have (or had?) positions in it (e.g. Marty Whitman) negatives: too rapidly (?) growing revenues, debt, shares outstanding earnings losses several years of decreasing book value CEO has sold a chunk at lower prices recently Negatives seem to outweigh positives as I list them. Company is a long-tail insurer by having "an emphasis on catastrophe cover and unpredictable events". Maybe only Berkshire Hathaway is big enough and smart enough to do this successfully. TWK seems to have very good and very bad years. Given that the stock's below book value, I'll make a small bet there's still some future for TWK and that they'll eventually have another good year and concomitant increase in stock price. Paul Senior