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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (27743)	1/11/2002 8:29:35 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Decision Point Alert: FUNDAMENTAL OBSESSIONS: decisionpoint.com for a nice look at what can happen to a company that saves their warning till announcement day...take a look at CREE<g>

To: John Madarasz who wrote (27743)	1/11/2002 10:19:16 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 209892

nice & thanks

To: John Madarasz who wrote (27743)	1/12/2002 5:59:45 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Whoa, Nellie, John! <g> <<And i certainly don't think it is indicative of a launch to new highs, >> I sure as heck didn't say that about the COT numbers. In fact, I said nothing about market direction based on the numbers. I did say that the commercials were sizably less short the S+P. 8000 contracts may not be a "radical" or even "loaded with meaning" swing, but anything that's 10% or so is, in my book, sizable. You mention the history of the numbers as a indicator of market direction. I'm no expert on that, as my past posts make clear. Still, the COT trend shows the commercials getting less short these past few weeks while still being quite net short. Does this, based on the history, imply the market should soon rally, tank, or do nothing? I'd be interested in your take. To me, as a trend it doesn't imply the market should be tanking right now. It also implies that upside should be relatively limited since they are still nicely net short. Then again, they were also net short at the bottom in September and the S+P has done okay since then, but they are shorter now than then. BTW -- in that chart you linked (http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/020110oexPC.html) I noticed that the OEX p/c ratio has hit its spike lows right at the end of one month/start of the next. It's happened three times in a row. Will this be the fourth time, or is it just one of those odd coincidences? (I had asked Les H. about this, and he, like me, doesn't know if it's coincidence or trend). Still, with the Fed meeting at the end of January, there is a catalyst for the market to move. I guess we'll know by the end of the month if we've declined radically yet, but it'll be interesting to check this indicator in the weeks to come. OK, enough rambling. the freep