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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (5408)	1/11/2002 10:55:36 PM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

What makes CRXA a failure? Is it their fault that they didn't make it on the February schedule? Torben

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (5408)	1/12/2002 12:33:53 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

<cancer field.> Fallout from this seems to be leading to quite compressed valuations. Note MAXM with a 148 m market cap, and working capital (no debt) of 146 m. Basically a net-net with plant and their phase II and III various trials on Ceplene thrown in for free. One product company, but are the odds against this pipeline that bleak? I thought observers were pretty excited about some of the results? CEGE in the high teens would be similar.

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (5408)	1/12/2002 12:54:41 PM
From: smh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

MZ, Are you suggesting the the recent failure rate should be expected to continue? Regards SMH

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (5408)	1/12/2002 7:41:51 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

So far we have PCYC, IMCL, CRXA, NEOL, NPRO, DNDN, IDPH PCYC, DNDN are true "failures." CRXA and IDPH seem to be decent drugs and mostly a sluggish FDA at this point. IMCL is poor trial design and/or regulatory screwup by the company. NEOL is unclear on the reason for the delay. NPRO is pretty much on schedule for its Taxol ANDA, so I don't know why it's included in your list. So I'd say that was two drug failures, one regulatory failure and two cases of FDA sluggishness. (I've omitted NEOL because I'm not sure what's happening with their trials). The drug approval process almost always has delays. That the leaderless FDA is sluggish and more cautious only magnifies this effect. Bush and Kennedy are new "best buddies." Let's hope they are friendly enough to agree on a decent and strong FDA Commissioner. Peter