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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (13338)	1/11/2002 10:43:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Pezz, <<But, But,...Everybody desperately wants to believe that he/she is the contrarian !>> I do not agree. Whatever you meant:0) Chugs, Jay P.S. cannot respond more for a while ... time for guided exercise by Ms. Apple.

To: pezz who wrote (13338)	1/11/2002 10:46:57 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 74559

Not me!

To: pezz who wrote (13338)	1/12/2002 12:27:49 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

It's a he, pezz. To be a contrarian in this climate might require the adoption of a bullish stance, an anathema to everyone here and to prevailing wisdom. Let me explain myself. There are many who make good arguments in favor of the proposition that the market will trade sideways for most of '02, and that there will be a very moderate, almost unappreciable recovery, in late '02. Others make equally compelling arguments that we are/will be in deflationary times and that very few have the wisdom, knowledge or experience to know how devastating deflation can be. As I appreciate the overall general consensus among pundits, wise posters, and the media in general, '02 is likely to be year which can be anywhere from moderately gloomy to devastating. Uncle Al spoke yesterday. He seems to have adopted a position which is on the more optimistic side of this gloomy continuum. From where I sit, the prevailing mood is clearly bearish. Given the pain inflicted by the bursted bubble, no one wants anything to do with the proposition that the market might actually do very well this year. I'm being only mildly facetious here, but a true contrarian given the prevailing pessimism would be a bull. The fly in the ointment, of course, is that economic trends and indicators suggest that the prevailing gloomy view is actually correct. Perhaps what will take place later on in the year is the onset of Soros' reflexivity on the bearish side. Irrational pessimism may yet take hold and become foolishly self-propelled. Perhaps then is when one should be a contrarian and pick up bargains. Some famous investor said that the time to buy is when blood is on the streets.