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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mightylakers who wrote (110824)	1/12/2002 10:05:07 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 152472

Lakers, << Eric, about Tero's part II. I have a few questions that maybe you can answer or ask Tero to answer. >> I have not yet read Tero's QCOM Part II. Since Tero wrote the article you are probably better off asking Tero those questions. You can PM him from SI or you can e-mail him by clicking on the link at the bottom of one of his archived theStreet.com articles that says "Kuittinen appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to Tero Kuittinen", or just send him an SMS from your 1xRTT mobile. I will say that I have enjoyed some heated debates with Tero over the years and am sorry her no longer posts SI regularly or anchors the NOK thread where the headbangers hang out. It is unfortunate that the columns he wrote for DeBry.com are no longer available. They were entertaining. They chronicled the evolution of handsets quite well through the wireless boom, and on balance he called the shots pretty well about what was happening with handsets (in particular) through that boom, and as Keith pointed out he made a pretty good call on Qualcomm at about the right time. << I think you, me, and esp. Tero know perfectly that Mot has never been a real supporter of CDMA, >> Now that I did NOT know. I have been laboring under the assumption that they were originally a key member of Qualcomm's value chain and one of the 3 American companies that helped commercialize IS95 and they are the only one still making CDMA handsets. I don't even think Qualcomm knew that. Let me put it this way. Qualcomm needs more than Lucent, Samsung and LGE in their value chain, particularly since Samsung and LGE are increasingly involved in GSM/3GSM endeavors and initiatives and it is incumbent upon Qualcomm to control their value chain, << Lu's CDMA product might be the very few bright spots it has. >> It is. << Isn't it funny that with all its problems, LU decided to just totally abandon its business in TDMA/GSM and focus on CDMA more than ever? >> No. It is a sensible tactical and strategic decision. Lucent is a mess. They did insufficient R&D in GSM EDGE and WCDMA to compete with the 4 or 5 majors. Focusing on one of their key areas of strength is sensible even though the addressable market is smaller. It is unfortunate that they had to walk away from several billion dollars of business here in the States << Audiovox has a 5yr growth 27.73 vs 27.78 of the sector. So how does that compile the term spiral decline ? >> Having not seen the article I'm not sure whether he is talking about share price or not but as a matter of record the 5 year appreciation of QCOM is + 913% and Nokia is + 581% (through 12/31/01). I suspect he may be talking about handset market share. They are not really doing very well and just completed a relatively unspectacular quarter. The 5 years your talking about include 13 tough months, but also include almost 4 years of spectacular sector growth from a revenue perspective. As one single example, Nokia's top line has increased about $20 billion per annum over that preriod. <<Go ask Tero ... >> No. YOU "Go ask Tero". <g> Best, - Eric -

To: mightylakers who wrote (110824)	1/12/2002 12:36:46 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

re: Correction to my previous post ... I said: The 5 years your talking about ... Nokia's top line has increased about $20 billion per annum over that period. I meant to say ... The 5 years your talking about ... Nokia's top line has increased about $20 billion over that period. I have now read the article. I found it very entertaining and there are, IMO, all to few wireless journalists that are entertaining. I could I suppose pick it apart on half a dozen points ... ... 1xRTT phones deliver only about 40 kilobits-per-second data speeds in real-world circumstances ... ... for instance, could more realistically turn out to be 50 to 70 kbps initially (once networks are optimized and stabilized) and that is without data compression and optimization and without Release A enhancement ... and I hope I am not overly optimistic in this regard ... but on balance I agree with the fundamental points he makes (and that is not always the case), and I was entertained by the article as well. Best, - Eric -