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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (6405)	1/12/2002 9:30:25 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

George, It's all relative you know. This week's "surge" in gold price was a 3% move LOL So maybe a "severe pull back" could be like 1.5%? I think this somehow means that eventually the range is going to expand to where the moves are much larger than we are used to. Gold has been so dead that a 3% move feels like a surge. -g- If its the end of a 20 year bear market then the percentages could start swinging which will be good because then people will start trading it. No one wants to trade something with no volatility. M.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (6405)	1/12/2002 11:45:04 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

George, Michael, et al.: The gold price has been in an ascending triangle for the past year. It's peaked close to $300 twice, while making progressively higher lows. If it continues to follow that pattern, it should spurt up again to nearly $300 next week (when Anglo finally gives up), then pull back a bit, then rise gradually to $300 again, and then finally blow through that level 2 or 3 months from now. Just speculation of course ;-) I'm not too concerned about COT. From what I can see those guys follow a simple rule: buy low, sell high, where high and low are defined relative to the recent trading range. Most of the time it works, but it doesn't imply any special knowledge of the future, and can lead to them getting caught the wrong way on big moves. Same thing about the 62% bullish number. It's contrarian short-term, but the average percentage shifts up in a bull market and down in a bear market. (Here I go making a big prediction again. I'm really asking to get hammered. But hell, the trend has been up for the last year, how long before we can call it a bull market?) Low lease rates are surprising, since from what I've seen on the Kitco historical lease rate charts, rising lease rates usually anticipate a price rise, and this didn't happen this time. Maybe this rise was too small to really count, and prices aren't going much higher in the next couple months (but not much lower either). Or maybe the Normandy deal has changed the dynamics of the hedge game. The upcoming BOE auction is not really good or bad in itself, since it was expected. What's more significant IMO is it's the second last one. The gold market has to benefit from the end of that selling. The last auction could be the catalyst for the breakout above $300. Just my 2 cents. I'm glad this thread has moved on from drilling to gold. It makes the name confusing, but it's the same progression I've followed over the past couple years, and I guess I have a lot of company in that. I'm currently 50% gold stocks and 50% cash. Fun-da-Mental