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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (21328)	1/12/2002 11:43:14 AM
From: gladman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

There are several powerful families in Mexico that control the soda business, they also control the bottling and distribution. Did you notice that taxes on bottles was only 10% while taxes on bulk soda dispensed via machines was double that to 20%. Reason being they don't want people to drink via the soda fountain, they want bottles, millions of them. THey would lose Billions if mexicans drank out of bulk soda fountains.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (21328)	1/12/2002 12:20:28 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

It looks like CPO's Mexican operations add about $300 M to sales or about 15% of total sales extending into the rest of Central America. So your expectation of 15% downside at worse is on the money at first glance. Actually, in may be even less of an impact, since of the 4 Mexican plants, only 1 has shut down production. I can't imagine the demand for the remainder of the corn milling process, starch products and corn oil to be greatly effected by the tariffs. Pricing for their products is the biggest problem I see since decreasing pricing of HFCS relative to sucrose is what led to Mexican action of tariffs in the first place. Lastly, CPO has been rapidly expanding into Mexico and Argentina while the Central and South American economies have declined much faster then even they could have expected when they started their expansion over last 3 years.