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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (21350)1/12/2002 12:28:49 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
If it was so, why none of those predictors were silent in the summer when I suggested that by mid 2002 the consumer will be forced to pull its horns? Furthermore, in 1999, there were no forecasts out there of a lengthy period (up to 10 years) in which we will be marred in a series of bull/bear markets and the major averages would be locked in a broad trading range, with only false breakouts to new highs. I still read mostly forecasts that the current bear will end soon and new highs of 36,000 on the Dow and 10,000 on the naz are just two three years out....

Zeev



To: DMaA who wrote (21350)1/13/2002 12:13:29 PM
From: Psycho-Social  Respond to of 99280
 
Double-Dips:
The devil's in the details. I believe that would hold true only if one defined "double-dip" as a lack of coninuous sequential improvement from trough to moderate growth. My records since 1970 show that all except for the 80-82 period had a V or U shaped contour to them. In Q2 of 1980, we hit bottom, then accelerated strongly for 3 Qs, then quickly declined to a fairly deep low in Q4 1981 and Q1 1982. That was the one double-dip.


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