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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (5429)	1/13/2002 1:47:50 AM
From: macavity	Respond to of 33421

Nice Article. When things were goodY2K, everyone said that "things were different" to justify the good times. Now that things have exploded, people assume that the same old routine will work - "do not fight the fed", "3 cuts and we are up". The market, like the complex system that it is, does not work like that. As soon as something becomes lore, and is widely anticipated then its effect is at best muted. As soon as everyone starts talking about stocks think about selling. As soon as everyone starts talking about a recovery think about further recession/depression. As soon as every trader chases breakouts they stop working. The relationship of anticipation and result is what the whole game is about, and one that I am learning all the time. We have had 3 recessions since the major bull market began in 81/82. Everybody knows the drill. Ease rates, buy stocks. The market has rallied in anticipation of The Recovery. If we do recover then it is a sell the news trade. If we do not then watch out below! If the market begins to doubt the arrival and strength of The Recovery then this most of this rally gets called into question. -macavity

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (5429)	1/29/2002 5:57:02 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Jon and threadreaders. Sorry I forgot to mention on this thread that I was going on vacation. I posted it on Tom's infamous Paint the Table thread. Message 16880251 My vacation was longer than I first thought -g-. I actually got back towards the end of last week. The Thursday I flew to Florida (Jan 10th), The SPX and NASD had a massive intraday reversal. The averages were up strongly in the morning and the NYSE Advance declines ratio was over 2.00. And then the huge futures selling kicked in, the averages went from up strong to down and the A/D number imploded as well. ... and the market has been down with the flu since then. Today was a very interesting day from an intraday technical perspective. Did you see how the TRIN which had been bearish during the first part of the day , really started to rock up at about 2:20 today. It went north of 1.80 and moved all the way to 3.10. That means that the volume in the declining sales was really overwhelming the volume on the upticks. The Nasdaq TICKQ also showed aggressive selling in size as it went above 2.00 at noon and spent the rest of the day above 2.00, hitting a high of 3.50 late in the day. No wonder some are talking about elements of panic selling today. Also interesting, their were 12 separate spikes in the TICK to readings of -700 and great occurring all through out the day today when you look at 1 minute bar charts of the Tick. That's very unusual. I don't think I recall the last time that happened. Sure you can see greater negative readings, but not as many individual waves of selling during the day. The TICKQ had only 4 bouts of selling that generated readings below -700. John