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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1610)	1/13/2002 6:37:19 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 95616

Jonathan and Don: I am equally at a loss why SFAM and TGAL etc. are gapping as they have. These are truly microcaps so the 'January effect' - perhaps in addition to the residual influence of a strong performance by small caps last year - may be in full stride here. There was an article appearing after the close on Friday entitled 'Analysts Look to Small-Cap Chip Stocks for Value' (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20020111/tc/tech_semiconductor_stocks_dc_1.html) which may explain some of the analysts' rationale behind our observations. I make no assumption about how long these stocks will continue to rally. But I've learned a hard, counterintuitive lesson over the years: rather than turn my focus to other equities in the sector which have not had such a run-up, I should narrow my focus specifically towards those that have already had cosmic runs. I would even consider chasing SFAM and TGAL, especially SFAM (I am impressed with their progress on the 300 mm front, as was announced last week biz.yahoo.com ), since my counterintuitive lesson has been that what is going up, tends to keep going up a long time (and the faster it has gone up, the faster it tends to continue to go up). This is a tendency, a likely statistically insignificant pattern, written in soft-lead pencil; indelible ink purveyors need not apply. These are purely idle thoughts. Such thinking has a not-so-unexpected propensity to be pathetically WRONG....so beware. [Don - regarding your spreadsheet dilemma and the hassles involved when reformatting the stock list: don't programs such as Excel have a 'linking' option which allows the changes on one spreadsheet to be automatically implemented on all the linked spreadsheets? I know this wouldn't completely eliminate the formatting nightmare, but it would certainly reduce much of the redundancy.] Best wishes, Scott