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To: maceng2 who wrote (143368)	1/12/2002 8:20:21 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

by definition -- shorts always jump on the bandwagon too soon and bulls always jump on too late -- way the market works. I thought you had reference to the charts -- A bump is certainly possible here -- but a squeeze anywhere near the magnitude of the rise off Sept lows is highly improbable. SZ points to printing -- all I can say there is it's taken more and more to move the market less and less in the last few months. Others have pointed to slowing money velocity as well ... furthermore, refi pump is done -- we got that huge surge latter part of October and early November. Lenders (see every business that claims to be doing well) are having to go to extremes to entice borrowers to keep up the pace -- and they aren't. AA says everyone is looking down. Nutz -- most everyone is looking up. VIX, local values of the average P/C, the financial media -- everyone and their mother is looking up. The error that both make on sentiment is putting too much stock in what they see right here ... there are folks here that were bearish through the whole friggin' bull market of the 90's -- they didn't capitulate then and certainly won't now. 50/50 shot that we've seen the top here, but if not, there is not going to be a huge rally -- this isn't 1998.