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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ajtj99 who wrote (21452)1/13/2002 4:55:29 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
Well we continued to churn last week and here we are with QQQ nearly at max pain as we head into expiry, but many stocks well above pain and some below. Thus I would expect to continue to see more churning this week.

Doubt sincerley we see any break up this week but I doubt a total collapse either.

It has been a somewhat strange week. Gold is rising but unlike the last 3 attempted breakouts the bears are not gloating. The Naz has pulled back a bit but no gloating over this either for the most part.

Finally I see some bears actually predicting a moonshot here, one on an EWAVE basis and another on the Greenspan pump theory. One huge bear (on a mid-term and long term basis) is so convinced we are launching here that he is buying and has a nearly full load of AMZN EBAY and other stuff.

Is this bear capitulation?
OTOH, looking ahead after expiry, I see more PUTs than calls for February. Are we churning down here to churn back up next month?

I see more caution flags for bulls as I have stated for expiry week, but I see no driving force for a continued pullback after expiry.
If things get heated and we drop huge into expiry, then dela hedging could send us a lot lower, but I think the option crooks can peg us where they want us, more than likely for several more months.

An interesting thought is that if the bears are afraid to short and buy puts and some are even going long, then who has all that short interest and puts? Has it been treansferred from the "weak bears" to the powers that be and we are now ready for a continued pullback.

Warning flag is on for bulls thru expiry.
Warning flag both ways after expiry.
This is a very difficult market right now.

M