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To: AllansAlias who wrote (27769)	1/13/2002 5:30:17 AM
From: Shack	Respond to of 209892

but 10/20 day moving averages have been climbing pretty hard since the December top I use the P/C ratio for all stocks/indices and the 10/20 day ma's are flat to down from the Dec top. I'm not sure that the OEX options is a great measure for J6P but I have not backtested that theory. Suffice it to say, I have found the P/C ratio fairly benign to mid-range as of late. I know Rydex is very bearish right now and that is definitely fodder for a squeeze.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (27769)	1/13/2002 8:22:01 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Sorry if I'm asking something repetitive, but I'd think any squeeze HAS to take place REAL early on Monday...and that the giving (Monday morn) can not be much (if at all) below Friday's high.. Is that your general take? (I read most, but not all of your posts since Fri.- Father forgive me-g) "Elaine, when I was in Bora Bora..."-g

To: AllansAlias who wrote (27769)	1/13/2002 1:32:03 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Concerning P/C ratios, one thing bothers me. It's so widely followed now, how good is it? Also, all we have are hard numbers of Puts and Calls, but not a measure of where that money is actually going. If one thought the market was going up, they would be fully invested and simply buy a few out of the money Puts as a hedge for insurance. One could easily buy a bunch of cheap Puts for the same price or less as one near the money Call and this would skew the actual raw number data. While it would look like a large number of Puts are being bought, they would actually only be used as insurance in this case and the dollars actually spent would be less than the Calls. A dollar weighted P/C ratio would be more indicative. It would also be nice to get some sort of chart to see how many are in or out of the money for both Puts and Calls and where they are exactly. That's not to say that the P/C ratio is right or it's wrong, I just wonder whether it's right to completely trust the data for all it's worth at this point and I think we need to look a little deeper into it. On the note of sentiment which correlates with the above, I remember hearing about a successful bond trader from some 30 years ago or so being quoted as saying that in general the majority of people will miss the beginning of a move and the end of a move, but usually catch the middle. Hence wave 3 being called the recognition wave. So, with P/C ratios high, are we at the beginning of a large move up where most are fooled, or at the middle of the decline where most are ready? Just some stuff to think about.