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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (21463)	1/13/2002 2:45:28 PM
From: s berg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Enjoy your posts Max. Here is a link to one bearish interpretation of the numbers. Message 16900986 On the government COT site you can download past COT numbers. Current numbers are bearish in terms of commercials being short and small investors long but they can get even more extreme, for example about a year ago. So I do not believe one can use the numbers alone to make a short term prediction. Current numbers are not inconsistent with Zeev's predictions for the next few months. Intermediate term the numbers suggest a hibernating bear as opposed to the widely held view of a resurgent bull market. The commercial investors were almost never this short during the bull run of the last decade. In terms of your other q about deflation I asked someone who negotiates with HMO's on behalf of a large urban hospital about health care inflation. He said that for the last decade we have been contracting our overcapacity in this sector while demographics have been going in the opposite direction. So he projects strong health care inflation for the foreseeable future. Perhaps this inflationary force / undercapacity in a large segment of our economy will balance the strong deflationary forces in tech and production capacity abroad (Japan, China et al.). The commercials have recently been record long in commodities suggesting future inflation in this sector of our economy. And I believe others have posted here about a future decline in the dollar. Perhaps with this balance of forces we will avoid a worst case scenario in either direction. I would imagine that besides health care, demographic forces, the aging of the population and contraction in some countries would have profound inflation / deflation consequences. If anyone here with an economic background has a guess about this piece of the puzzle I would be appreciative. Max said, Large Speculator 26,110(long)/ 31,124 (short) Commercial Hedger 333,742(long)/ 398,283(short) Small Trader 130,335 (long)/ 60,780(short)>> those familiar with this,is it usual to have the small trader at so different a ratio? now over 2 to 1 to the long side.Max