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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1621)	1/13/2002 2:31:24 PM
From: JSLyons	Respond to of 95587

Hi Cary. I've followed your posts avidly on the old 'Blood in the Streets' thread and elsewhere. And we share profitable investments in ASYT and, probably, a number of other semi-equips. I'm also in MKSI, ATMI and KLIC -- all now well in the black. As it happens, I have never owned AMAT. I was tempted recently but thought 29 was too high an entry point, a sentiment I recall you shared for a while before jumping in. AMAT is a great company, as are a number of other 'leaders.' Are they the best vehicles as we appear to come out of this huge industry slump? That is not as clear-cut. The post 9/11 profits in TGAL and TRKN, for example, have been sizeable. As I said before, "transition" is the key to accelerated price appreciation. "Buy a parking lot and find an oil field..." However, we can both agree that CREE is worth a look at these levels. best rgds, Jonathan

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1621)	1/13/2002 7:30:11 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

I too have followed your posts for quite some time, Cary. In the interest of background, and with the knowledge that the planet's most successful investors (as noted by one of them, Peter Lynch) are successful with, at best, 30-40% of their selections, could you reveal to the participants of this thread your selections in the equipment sector that have been profitable AND unprofitable for you over the past 12-18 months? Again, all of us are human: we all make prudent AND stupid equity selections. Could you reveal to us your prudent...and your stupid equipment-equity selections over the recent past? A claim that you managed to avoid significant losses, paper or real, due to unbelievably exquisite timing, should cast doubt upon your credibility amongst your fellow SI equipment investors. If you feel I am unfairly singling you, it is based on a certain arrogance in your past behavior on this, the AMAT, and related threads. If you are unwilling to relate your gains AND losses over the past cycle, then what is your precise investment posture in the sector as of 13 January, 2002? Tell us where in the equipment sector you are invested RIGHT NOW so that your fellow SI participants can evaluate whether your selections match the posturing you transmit in posts such as the one I'm responding to. As I stated in a post from earlier today, I've learned some fundamental lessons from the school of upside-the-head knocks: the current manifestation of this experience translates into buying into stocks such as SFAM with extreme abandon...and avoiding stocks such as CREE at all costs. Let's return to that prognostication in a couple months to see if my take home lesson was accurate. Obviously, I will reciprocate with my own recent equipment related investments, upon request.