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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (27574)	1/14/2002 12:04:31 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

The dominant long term cycle in Gold is the 9-year cycle. The last 9-year cycle low occurred in March 1993. The ideal timing for the next 9-year cycle bottom is late 1st quarter or early 2nd quarter 2002. The next cycle of interest is the seasonal cycle. This cycle averages 1 year in duration. It can however, vary from 8 to 15 months and it last bottomed in April 2001 at 255. The next shortest cycle is the weekly cycle. This cycle averages 18 weeks in duration and it can vary from 16 to 23 weeks. The last weekly cycle bottomed the week ending December 14, 2001 at 271.70. As of December 31, 2001 we are in the 2nd week since the December 14th low. As stated earlier this cycle generally runs 16 to 23 weeks in duration. So, the current weekly cycle is due to make it’s next bottom between April 5, 2002 and May 24, 2002. I look for this bottom to take Gold down below the 252 level as this bottom should make the seasonal low as well as the 9-year low. Now for more on the seasonal cycle. In analyzing over 30 years of seasonal cycle tendencies, I found a few points worth noting. First, if the seasonal cycle tops 1 to 5 months from the previous seasonal cycle low, expect the previous seasonal low to be taken out on the move down from the seasonal top. To be exact, 81% of the seasonal cycles that topped in 1 to 5 months from the previous seasonal low took out the previous seasonal low. Second, 88% of the seasonal cycles that topped in 6 months or more, the previous seasonal low held as the cycle moved down from the seasonal top. So, the expectation is that if a top occurs in 6 months or more the previous seasonal low should hold. Third, 94% of the seasonal cycles that top above the previous seasonal top also bottom above the previous seasonal bottom. Fourth, only 6% of the seasonal cycles that top above the previous seasonal top, bottom below the previous seasonal bottom. Fifth, the average advance from the seasonal low to the seasonal top for cycles that top in 5 months or less is 12.05% and the move down from the top averages 18.28%. Sixth, the average advance from the seasonal low to the seasonal top for cycles that top in 6 months or more is 55.98% and the move down from the top averages 18.58%. So, Where Are We Now? Well, Again the seasonal cycle last bottomed in April 2001 at 255. As of December 31, 2001 we are sitting with a potential seasonal top on September 21. We have had a price advance of 16% from the April seasonal lows to the September high. Also, September is only the 5th month from the April low. So, in order to have a bullish outlook we should have seen a move above the September highs in October. Obviously this has not happened. Remember, 81% of the seasonal cycles that top in 5 months or less move lower and take out the previous seasonal low, that was 255. However, 94% of the seasonal cycles that top above the previous seasonal top also bottom above the previous seasonal bottom. Well, the previous seasonal cycle top was in June 2000 at 292.90 and the current seasonal cycle has already exceeded this level with the September high of 296. So, looking at this statistic you would expect to see the April 255 level hold. This is indeed a conflicting indication. So, What Do We Do? The 9-year cycle is due to bottom in early 2002. I feel that the move out of this bottom will be substantial. This should occur with the bottoming of the current seasonal cycle low. This seasonal cycle low should also occur along with the current weekly cycle low which is due to bottom between April 5, 2002 and May 24, 2002. Therefore, I feel that upon confirmation that the current weekly cycle has bottomed, we should take a long position in anticipation of the seasonal and the 9-year cycle lows. As of now I see this as the latest time frame for the bottoming of the current seasonal cycle as well as the 9-year cycle low at which time we will see higher Gold prices. aegeancapital.com